The No. 4 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders face the No. 5 Iowa State Cyclones in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament this afternoon.
The Cyclones demolished Arizona State 91-42 yesterday, and my Iowa State vs. Texas Tech predictions expect them to build on that momentum. Here are my college basketball picks for this clash on March 11.
Iowa State vs Texas Tech prediction
Iowa State vs Texas Tech best bet
Iowa State vs Texas Tech best bet: Iowa State -5.5 (-110)
The Iowa State Cyclones are in a revenge spot against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who enter on a two-game skid. Texas Tech was the only team to beat the Cyclones at home this season, upsetting them 82-73 two weeks ago.
The Raiders went 14-for-29 from deep in that contest and have been extremely perimeter-oriented since All-American forward JT Toppin tore his ACL. With Iowa State third in conference play in 3-point defense (32.8%), expect major regression in that area.
Texas Tech has struggled with turnovers and rebounding lately, and ISU will turn those extra scoring chances into points.
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Iowa State vs Texas Tech same-game parlay
Cyclones point guard Tamin Lipsey has dropped 4+ dimes in 24 of 28 games — including the previous clash with Texas Tech.
Since losing Toppin, the Raiders rank 333rd in defensive rebounding rate. Blake Buchanan leads Iowa State in offensive rebounds by a wide margin and has grabbed 6+ boards in three of his last four games.
Iowa State vs Texas Tech SGP
- Iowa State -5.5
- Tamin Lipsey Over 3.5 assists
- Blake Buchanan Over 5.5 rebounds
Our beyond the arc SGP: Lipsey sinks Raiders
Lipsey went 0-for-3 from deep in the previous meeting and still finished with 13 points. The model at ShotQualityBets projected him to score 16.7 points, which gives us value on the Over 12.5 points today.
Iowa State vs Texas Tech SGP
- Tamin Lipsey Over 12.5 points
- Tamin Lipsey Over 3.5 assists
- Blake Buchanan Over 5.5 rebounds
- Iowa State -5.5
Iowa State vs Texas Tech odds
- Spread: Iowa State -5.5 | Texas Tech +5.5
- Moneyline: Iowa State -230 | Texas Tech +190
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 | Under 143.5
Iowa State vs Texas Tech betting trend to know
The Under is 16-8 in Iowa State's last 24 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Texas Tech.
How to watch Iowa State vs Texas Tech
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Thursday, March 12, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Iowa State vs Texas Tech key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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