The High Point Panthers will continue their quest for a postseason title tonight as they play the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Daytona Beach, Florida in the College Basketball Invitational semifinals.
High Point was the odds on favorite to win the Big South title and book a spot in the March Madness bracket but was upset by the Longwood Lancers in their tournament semifinal. Arkansas State may not have as impressive a record as the Panthers but faced tougher competition this year in the Sun Belt Conference.
Both teams play outstanding offense for low-profile programs but have trouble preventing quality opponents from scoring points in return. I’ll talk about what this means for tonight’s game in my free college basketball picks for Arkansas State vs. High Point on March 26.
High Point vs Arkansas State best odds
High Point vs Arkansas State picks and predictions
The CBI often gives lesser-known teams a chance to shine at the end of the season, and tonight’s game perfectly illustrates that point. Both High Point and Arkansas State can play some decent basketball, with the Panthers likely disappointed they didn’t earn an automatic bid into March Madness.
In both cases, these teams excel on the offensive end. High Point averages 84.5 points per game — ninth-best in the nation — on a solid 46.7% shooting percentage. The Panthers also get to the line a ton, averaging 24.6 free throws per game (second in the country).
Arkansas State is no slouch either. Against somewhat tougher competition, the Red Wolves averaged 78.7 ppg and made 9.2 threes per game. Even after adjusting for strength of schedule, Arkansas State ranks 60th in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom while High Point comes in at 33rd.
In other words, we’re looking at two offenses that are better than many of the teams that made the NCAA Tournament. So why didn’t these teams joined those squads in the big dance? As you might expect, the answer is on the defensive end.
High Point is allowing opponents to score 74.2 ppg on the year while Arkansas State is allowing 76.9. These numbers are poor in a vacuum, but look even worse when you consider that these are mid or low-major programs that aren’t playing elite opponents on a regular basis. KenPom has the Panthers ranked 256th in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Red Wolves are 255th.
That’s why both teams have been playing to big totals all year long. Even without playing particularly fast, High Point is playing to an average total of 158.7 compared to Arkansas State's 155.7.
Tonight’s total is a touch higher than either of those numbers. But when two teams like this face off against each other they should each find plenty of easy buckets and fill up the box score. This game will be a shootout, and I’m taking the Over even with the big total.
My best bet: Over 158 (-110 at DraftKings)
High Point vs Arkansas State same-game parlay
Over 158
First half Over 75
High Point moneyline
For my same-game parlay, I’m hitting the Over both for the overall game and for the first half. These teams should get off the ground quickly and have trouble stopping each other from scoring.
In addition, I’m taking High Point to win this game outright. While these are competitive teams, the Panthers have been slightly better and only missed the NCAA Tournament due to a one-point overtime loss. High Point will advance to the CBI final and have a real shot at winning the tournament.
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High Point vs Arkansas State spread and Over/Under analysis
- High Point opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and that remains the consensus spread.
- High Point went 20-11-1 against the spread this season, while Arkansas State put up a 22-13-1 ATS mark.
- The total for this game opened at 162 points, but has come down significantly. Sites are now offering totals of between 158-159 points.
- The Over went 19-13 in High Point’s games this year. The Under held an 18-15-3 edge when Arkansas State played this season.
High Point vs Arkansas State betting trend to know
The Over is 19-13 in High Point’s games this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for High Point vs. Arkansas State.
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High Point vs Arkansas State game info
| Location: | Ocean Center, Daytona Beach, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
