The No. 15 Florida Gators head to Cameron Indoor Stadium to face the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils tonight.
Although the Gators are the defending national champions, their poor guard play has held them back this season, and my Florida vs. Duke predictions expect that to be the difference.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this non-conference clash on Tuesday, December 2.
Florida vs Duke prediction
Florida vs Duke best bet: Duke -8.5 (-115)
The Duke Blue Devils are 8-0 and are coming off an 80-71 win against Arkansas last Thursday. They also have a pair of double-digit wins against Texas and Kansas on their resume.
Meanwhile, the Florida Gators have gone 5-2 straight up and just 1-6 against the spread. The Gators' two losses came against Arizona and TCU at neutral sites, and this will be their first true road game of the season.
Florida lost its four best guards in the offseason, and the decline in backcourt play has been steep. The Gators are outside the Top 250 in turnover rate (19.1%) and also rank below the Top 300 in both 3-point percentage (27.7%) and opponent turnover rate (15%).
That's bad news against the Blue Devils, who sit in the Top 70 in turnover rate (14.4%) and opponent TO rate (20.1%) while holding foes to 26% shooting from deep — the 16th best number in the country.
The Blue Devils also do a great job of defending at the rim and scoring inside the arc, boasting a Top 5 mark in 2-point percentage (65.2%) and opponent 2PT% (40.8%). Considering their depth and two-way play, Duke should be able to pull away tonight.
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Florida vs Duke same-game parlay
Since we're expecting the Blue Devils to cover a sizable spread, let's also bet on them to hit the 20-point plateau first and cover the first half spread of -4.
While the Gators prefer a speedy tempo, Duke is 361st in the country in opponent possession length (19.1 seconds) and can slow them down. The Blue Devils are also fifth in the country in adjusted defense per KenPom, while Florida ranks 10th.
The betting trends also strongly indicate the Under, with Duke going below the total in seven of eight games this season, and Florida 4-1-1 to the Under in its last six.
Florida vs Duke SGP
- Duke -8.5
- Duke 1H -4
- Under 157.5
Our beyond the arc SGP: All Aboard the Thomas Train
Even if Duke wins in a lopsided fashion, we could see a productive game from Thomas Haugh.
The forward is averaging 17.9 ppg for Florida and scored 20+ points in the losses to Arizona and TCU.
Florida vs Duke SGP
- Duke -8.5
- Duke 1H -4
- Under 157.5
- Thomas Haugh Over 15.5 points
Florida vs Duke odds
- Spread: Florida +8.5 (-105) | Duke -8.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Florida +325 | Duke -425
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 | Under 157.5
Florida vs Duke betting trend to know
The Gators are 1-6 ATS this season, while the Blue Devils are 6-2 ATS. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Duke.
How to watch Florida vs Duke
| Location | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date | Tuesday, December 2, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Florida vs Duke key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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