The NBA season's second half kicks off Wednesday night with a pair of somewhat-subdued matchups, including this one, as the Washington Wizards visit the Memphis Grizzlies.
These two squads faced off March 2, with Memphis winning easily, 125-111, spoiling Washington's relative hot streak. Can the Wizards provide some value for NBA betting this time around?
Let's break down the matchup with our Wizards vs. Grizzlies picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 10.
Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies betting preview
Injuries
Wizards: Ish Smith PG (Out).
Grizzlies: Grayson Allen SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Grizzlies.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe NBA's return from the All-Star break is thoroughly overshadowed by college basketball's conference tournament week, but there's action to be had tonight. TwinSpires opened Memphis -2.5 and is at -3 as of 5 p.m. ET, with 54 percent of bets and 60 percent of money on the Grizzlies. The total dropped from 238.5 to 237, and the betting splits bear that out, with the Under taking 62 percent of bets/70 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The books may be giving the Wizards a bit too much credit here, after their pseudo-streak over the last few weeks that, at first glance, looks fairly impressive. Washington has beaten some tough teams, but has also benefitted from opponent rest and injuries, cadence, and likely a slight element of nonchalance from foes.
Before their March 2 matchup, we noted that the Wizards would have trouble containing Ja Morant, who promptly gored them for 35 points and 10 assists, getting into the paint at will. De'Anthony Melton chipped in 20 points on a totally-unsustainable 6-10 from beyond the arc, but Memphis' balanced secondary can derive that offense in aggregate from others.
Memphis has several competent defenders to sic on Bradley Beal. They'll also have Kyle Anderson (second on the team with a 2.8 box plus-minus) back for this game, after missing the March 2 matchup.
The Grizzlies are gaining some momentum after a shaky start to the season. At 4-1 ATS in their last five, they've netted three blowout wins and a brutal one-point loss to the Bucks. They match up reasonably well with Washington on both sides of the ball, and while this game will likely be closer than these teams' last matchup, we still think 1.5 points is a fair spread.
PREDICTION: Memphis -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
These teams needed a scoring flurry in the fourth quarter to hit 236 in their last meeting, which either snuck Over the number or fell short, depending on when and where you bet it. The result was largely due to an anomalous third quarter, which totaled just 47 points, while the other three saw 63 on average.
The Wizards' woes on D are well-chronicled: on paper, they're the 27th-ranked defensive team in the NBA. In practice, Morant is a nightmare matchup for their Swiss-cheese backcourt, and Washington playing at the NBA's fastest pace will only compound those issues and provide more opportunities for Memphis to run up the score.
This total is certainly gaudy enough that you may want to see if action comes in on the Under and buys you a couple of points, but for our purposes right now, it's tough to see Washington staying disciplined enough to keep the Grizzlies from running amok.
PREDICTION: Over 236.5 (-110)
First quarter prop pick
We converted on this pick in the last Wiz-Grizz game (albeit barely), and see no reason not to hammer it again.
The Wizards are 11-21-1 on first-quarter spreads this season, ranking them 28th in the NBA, and the recent results have been pretty dismal. Over its past 21 games, Washington's first-quarter point differential is -6.47, meaning the Wizards concede as much of an edge in one quarter as a clear underdog might in an entire game.
Scott Brooks isn't exactly known for swift adjustments, and until this trend regresses to the mean a bit, we see no reason to avoid firing away.
PREDICTION: Grizzlies first quarter -1.5 (+100)
Wizards vs Grizzlies betting card
- Memphis -1.5 (-110)
- Over 236.5 (-110)
- Grizzlies first quarter -1.5 (+100)
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