The Dallas Mavericks are suddenly one of the NBA's hottest teams and will look to carry that momentum forward into the season's second half as they open up at home against the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs have been fairly steady and consistent this season (as if we should've expected any less from a Gregg Popovich squad), but can they contain the surging Mavs?
Let's find an edge for NBA betting as we delve into this matchup with our Spurs vs. Mavericks picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 10.
(Editor's Note: This preview was published prior to Wednesday's announcement that Spurs G Derrick White and F Rudy Gay have cleared health & safety protocols, and will be active for tonight's game.)
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks betting preview
Injuries
Spurs: Devin Vassell SG (Out).
Mavericks: None.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played on three or more days rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Mavericks.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDallas opened as a 4.5-point favorite at TwinSpires and dropped a tick to -4, where the line stands at 5 p.m. ET. It's two-way point-spread action, with the Mavericks taking 55 percent of bets and the Spurs landing 59 percent of money. The total is out to 226 from a 223.5 opener, with the Over getting 66 percent of bets/72 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Dallas' topsy-turvy season has hit another high, with the Mavs 9-2 SU over their past 11, even scoring a W (albeit over the Thunder) with Luka Doncic resting. They look to be rounding into form after gross inconsistency and multiple Kristaps Porzingis absences marred their first half.
Doncic has been playing more efficiently on offense, trying harder on defense, and the Mavs have been getting consistent production from their supporting cast, particularly Jalen Brunson, who dropped 13.5 ppg on a stellar 54 percent from the field in February.
San Antonio's stock rests increasingly with its youth movement. The Spurs have a solid stable of two-way production but lack a true game-breaking talent on Doncic's level. While the murky statuses of Derrick White, Rudy Gay, and Devin Vassell - still yet to be cleared from health and safety protocol - cast uncertainty on this matchup, the Spurs have plenty of depth waiting in the wings (literally).
Dallas beat San Antonio 122-117 in their previous meeting this year, but the Spurs lost Dejounte Murray in the opening minute, leaving them without their best two-way player. Having him in the lineup this time around will be a great Doncic deterrent.
The Spurs are 6-2 ATS as underdogs of more than one possession (greater than +3) this season, suggesting they keep things close. Dallas may very well win this game, but winning it by six points is another story.
PREDICTION: San Antonio +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
San Antonio is a tough Over/Under to pin, with some wildly inconsistent scoring patterns.
The same Spurs team that averaged 100.5 ppg in two games vs. Oklahoma City (111.4 opponent ppg) also lit up New York (104.4 opponent ppg) for 119, all within its last five contests.
But the Mavericks are averaging 119.4 ppg over their last 10 (excluding Doncic's outlier rest game where they scored just 87) and could drive the Over here themselves. The Spurs aren't built for a shootout, but they've gone Over their projected team total of 107.5 seven times in their past 11 games.
Everyone's legs will be fresh in this one - let's see some buckets.
PREDICTION: Over 219.5 (-110)
First half prop pick
The Spurs are one of the NBA's best first-half bets this season, covering at a 20-12 clip (third in NBA), while the Mavs are merely middle-of-the-pack in that realm, sitting 16th at 15-16-3.
Having the Spurs within 2.5 points at the half of a game we're expecting to be close falls in line with expectation, but that's not the entire story.
See, San Antonio's a bit of an anomaly. Despite their stellar first-half ATS mark, they're actually the NBA's worst first-quarter ATS team, at just 10-22. This would suggest (and on paper it rings true) that the Spurs' starters don't perform as well as their bench relative to the competition, owning the NBA's best second-quarter margin (+3.8).
Since Dallas itself is only a lackluster 15-19 Q1 ATS, we're instead also recommending targeting the Spurs' strength and firing on San Antonio's second-quarter spread.
PREDICTION: San Antonio first half +1.5 (-104)
Spurs vs Mavericks betting card
- San Antonio +5.5 (-110)
- Over 219.5 (-110)
- San Antonio first half +1.5 (-104)
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