Monday's 15-game NBA slate tips off with the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers at 7 p.m. ET and wraps up with the Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover every game in tipoff order and are priced with Polymarket probabilities. The San Antonio Spurs (88%) are the heaviest favorites on the board, while the Milwaukee Bucks (24%) are our longest shot.
Find more analysis on our NBA picks and NBA player prop projections pages.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 2
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Thunder Cavaliers |
62% |
 Hawks Pacers |
37% |
 Nets Knicks |
86% |
 Wizards Magic |
48% |
 Pistons Hornets |
63% |
 Bulls 76ers |
84% |
 Kings Mavericks |
78% |
 Bucks Timberwolves |
24% |
 Pelicans Grizzlies |
65% |
 Celtics Rockets |
63% |
 Jazz Spurs |
88% |
 Trail Blazers Nuggets |
61% |
 Heat Lakers |
52% |
 Raptors Clippers |
65% |
 Suns Warriors |
40% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 2
Thunder vs Cavaliers: Cavaliers
With Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso all sidelined, Peyton Watson can lock in on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the point of attack and funnel him into the heart of the Cavaliers' defense, where Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen provide elite rim protection.
The Cavaliers' biggest issue against Oklahoma City is typically the secondary creators, such as Jalen Williams, exploiting matchups against defenders like James Harden or Donovan Mitchell to generate efficient offense. With so many of those key pieces unavailable, however, that concern is largely eliminated.
Hawks vs Pacers: Pacers
The Indiana Pacers are on the second night of a back-to-back, but this trade ultimately comes down to the status of Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson, who is questionable with a left ankle sprain.
Johnson looks closer to being ruled out than truly questionable after failing to return to Saturday's game against the New Orleans Pelicans. If he's ruled out, this 37% Pacers trade goes from offering a slight edge to presenting a significantly stronger one.
Nets vs Knicks: Knicks
After sitting out the front end of the back-to-back on Sunday, Brooklyn Nets rookie Mikel Brown Jr. should be available to face the New York Knicks on Monday.
Even with Brown back in the lineup and the potential for a Julius Randle revenge game, I'm backing the Knicks at 86%, as I price them closer to an 89% favorite.
It's not the biggest edge, but how do the Nets consistently create advantages for Randle? OG Anunoby is an ideal defender for that matchup, while Brooklyn's young backcourt lacks the creation needed to generate efficient offense.
Wizards vs Magic: Wizards
One of Orlando's biggest advantages in recent seasons has been its combination of size and mobility, with multiple players standing 6-foot-11 or taller in the starting lineup.
The Washington Wizards can now match that size with Anthony Davis and Alex Sarr, while the Orlando Magic will be without their primary point-of-attack defender, Jalen Suggs, to help slow down Trae Young and limit his playmaking opportunities.
With Orlando also playing on the second night of a back-to-back, I believe Washington should be favored.
Pistons vs Hornets: Pistons
The Detroit Pistons are trading as a 63% favorite, and I'm definitely hitting the button at that number, as I price them closer to a 68% favorite against the Charlotte Hornets.
With Coby White and Kon Knueppel still sidelined, Brandon Miller is the high-usage alpha and primary engine of Charlotte's offense.
That's a major concern against Detroit, where Ausar Thompson has the defensive ability to completely disrupt what Miller wants to do and force him into an inefficient night.
When an offense relies so heavily on one primary creator, a matchup like this can become a major problem against Thompson's elite point-of-attack defense.
Bulls vs 76ers: 76ers
Joel Embiid is questionable, but I ruled him out in my projection and still had the Philadelphia 76ers holding a slight edge at 84%. If he does play, that edge will only grow.
The bottom line is that the Chicago Bulls don't have enough quality wing defenders or the rim protection needed to slow down Philadelphia's other four starters.
There are mismatches everywhere for LeBron James, VJ Edgecombe, Tyrese Maxey, and Jaylen Brown to attack, which significantly reduces the impact of Embiid potentially sitting out against the Bulls.
Kings vs Mavericks: Mavericks
Kyrie Irving is listed as questionable, and his status is important to how you approach this trade.
At 78%, the Dallas Mavericks hold a small edge in my projection with Irving playing around 30 minutes. If he sits, however, that edge disappears and Dallas falls below the 78% mark, making this a trade you don't want to have in your pocket.
The bottom line: Be careful here. I would only buy the Mavericks at 78% once you have confirmation that Irving is in the lineup.
Bucks vs Timberwolves: Bucks
This is all about the price, as I'm rolling with the Bucks at 24% against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The shooting of Myles Turner and Kel'el Ware should be able to pull Rudy Gobert and Minnesota's drop coverage away from the rim, opening driving lanes for Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr. to attack the paint.
The Timberwolves are also still in the early stages of adjusting to Anthony Edwards' absence, creating some lineup friction. That uncertainty makes me even more willing to back the mathematical edge I'm seeing on Milwaukee.
Pelicans vs Grizzlies: Grizzlies
I love this probability on the Memphis Grizzlies, as I price them closer to a 72% favorite.
The Pelicans were already thin at center, and with Yves Missi now sidelined, Karlo Matkovic is starting in the middle with DeAndre Jordan backing him up. That's a major problem against a Memphis frontcourt featuring Zach Edey and Cameron Boozer.
The Grizzlies not only have a significant advantage offensively in the frontcourt, but they also have the size to wall off the paint and make life difficult for Zion Williamson on the defensive end.
Celtics vs Rockets: Rockets
Give me the Houston Rockets at 63% in the Ime Udoka Bowl.
Both teams are playing phenomenal basketball, and there are plenty of intriguing individual matchups to highlight, but this trade ultimately comes down to the scheduling spot.
The Boston Celtics are playing on the second night of a back-to-back and have to travel from Orlando to Houston.
Once the travel and fatigue factors are built into my projection, the Rockets have a small edge at 63%.
Jazz vs Spurs: Spurs
Ironically, the Utah Jazz probably have one of the best roster constructions in the league to defend Victor Wembanyama — when healthy being the key phrase.
Monday's version of Utah won't feature the massive frontcourt of Jusuf Nurkic, Lauri Markkanen, and Jaren Jackson Jr. that we saw in the preseason. Instead, with Nurkic and Jackson sidelined by injuries, Jaxson Hayes will anchor the frontcourt.
An 88% win probability feels steep for the Spurs, but there's still value at that number, as I price San Antonio closer to a 91% favorite.
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets: Nuggets
At 61%, give me the Denver Nuggets all day. I price them closer to a 67% favorite against the Portland Trail Blazers.
The key to beating Portland is forcing Donovan Clingan out of the paint and creating space for everyone else to attack the rim, and Denver has the perfect two-man game to make that happen.
Clingan will have to step out and respect Jamal Murray's shooting and Nikola Jokic's pick-and-pop ability.
Jokic can use his shooting and size to occupy Clingan's attention on the perimeter before facilitating opportunities for teammates attacking a vacated paint.
Heat vs Lakers: Heat
I'm hitting the button on this number, as I price the Miami Heat closer to a 58% favorite against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Miami has the perfect defensive personnel to disrupt the Lakers' offense, with Davion Mitchell applying pressure at the point of attack against Austin Reaves and Andrew Wiggins taking on Luka Doncic on the wing.
Both defenders can also funnel Doncic and Reaves toward the rim protection of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo.
This also isn't a matchup where Walker Kessler should have an easy time finishing around the basket, even when set up by potential assists.
Raptors vs Clippers: Raptors
This game loses a lot of its League Pass juice with Kawhi Leonard sidelined, but I'll still back the Toronto Raptors at 65% in the Kawhi Leonard Bowl.
The Los Angeles Clippers are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, and Darius Garland isn't typically a player who logs huge minutes to begin with. That raises questions about how much he'll play — or whether Los Angeles could opt to load manage his workload entirely on Monday.
Even with Garland available, I have a hard time seeing where the Clippers consistently generate efficient offense. If his minutes are reduced, their shot quality could fall off significantly during extended stretches, which is why I'm backing Toronto.
Suns vs Warriors: Suns
Give me the Phoenix Suns all day at 40%, as I price them closer to a 49% underdog on Monday.
Stephen Curry and Draymond Green both sat out the front end of the Warriors' back-to-back, so they should be ready to go against Phoenix. Even with both in the lineup, however, I'm seeing a significant edge on the Suns compared to their market price.
The Warriors can throw Yaxel Lendeborg at Devin Booker, but I think Phoenix simply has too much scoring punch on the wings.
Golden State just lacks the individual defensive matchups needed to consistently contain the Suns' perimeter threats.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Pistons
Grizzlies
Heat
With 15 games on the board, there are plenty of trades to choose from for our combo. I'm rolling with these three because they offer sizeable probability gaps between my projections and the market price — always the most important factor for me — while also presenting strong basketball edges that stand out on film.
Ausar Thompson against Brandon Miller, the Grizzlies' frontcourt advantage over the Pelicans, and Miami's overall defense against Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic all jump off the page from a matchup standpoint. That's why these are the three edges I'm combining on Monday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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