A busy Wednesday night for NBA betting kicks off with the Golden State Warriors on the second half of a back-to-back going up against the Indiana Pacers.
Golden State outlasted the New York Knicks on Tuesday behind a monster performance from Steph Curry, while the Pacers are well-rested after a couple of postponements kept them out of action for the last week.
Will the time off work against Indiana or to its advantage? Find out with our best free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Pacers on February 24 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers betting preview
Injuries
Warriors: None.
Pacers: T.J. Warren F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Pacers are 2-8 ATS over their last 10 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Pacers.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe Pacers opened as 2-point home favorites at DraftKings, moved to -1.5 late Tuesday night, then back to -2 early this morning, and the number remains -2 as of 1 p.m. ET. Ticket count is almost dead even, and Indiana is taking 63 percent of money. The total rose from 228.5 to 231.5, with 61 percent of bets and 70 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Golden State escaped New York with a win Tuesday behind 37 points and seven triples from Curry. A victory on the second night of its back-to-back would improve the team to a season-high-tying three games above .500. The Warriors have done a good job hanging tough in the superior Western Conference and are getting MVP play out of Curry, who's finally getting some much-needed help from his supporting cast, particularly Kelly Oubre Jr. as of late.
The Warriors enter as an underdog after five straight games as the betting favorite, where they covered in three of them, and are 16-16 ATS on the season.
Indiana, who hasn't played since Feb. 17, has been inconsistent like much of the Eastern Conference, but has won three of its last four games and covered in all of those victories. The Pacers, while up and down all season, are a talented and solid two-way team that will likely be grinding for that competitive No. 4 spot in the East behind the Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets, and Milwaukee Bucks. They'd be out of the playoffs if they played in the West, but such is life in the East.
This should be a tight contest, and although Golden State is playing for the second night in a row against a team that has had plenty of time to rest, the Warriors' top-tier defense (they're fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and hold opponents to the second-lowest field goal percentage per game) should keep them in this to the final whistle.
PREDICTION: Warriors +2 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Indiana is a strong 16-12-1 O/U on the season, hitting the Over at the third-highest rate in the East, but recent play suggests the Pacers are trending in the wrong direction. While the Pacers have gone Over in three straight, one of those games required overtime in order to do so, and they went Under in each of their four games before that. Now they come into this one having not played since last Wednesday.
NBA teams aren’t used to this much time off, so it’s possible the layoff impacts the Pacers. Even if there’s rust and the jumpers aren’t falling, Indiana has no excuse not to bring it on the defensive end tonight. Those factors could impact the total.
Throw in the fact that the Warriors are coming off a grind of a game against one of the league’s best defenses and are cashing the Over at the fifth-lowest rate in the NBA, and this has Under written all over it.
PREDICTION: Under 230.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
The Warriors rank third from the bottom in the NBA in rebounding rate (the Pacers are 24th) and were just outrebounded by 15 by the Knicks, but Oubre Jr. is one player they're getting production from on the glass.
Oubre has really turned things around since a rough start to his Warriors career and is providing Golden State with the weapon they thought they were getting when they traded for him this offseason. The 25-year-old is averaging 6.7 rebounds per game this month and has gone for 8-plus in half of Golden State's February contests. And he's scoring at a much higher and more efficient rate.
The southpaw averaged 12 points per game on dismal shooting percentages through the Warriors' first 20 games but finally shook off the slow start and is putting up 20.3 per contest in February. He's shooting 48.3 percent from the field and nailing 2.8 triples per game at a 44.6-percent clip this month, giving Golden State a strong secondary scoring option behind Curry.
Oubre needs to exceed 22.5 points plus rebounds to cash his Over prop tonight, a number he's exceeded in four straight and six of his last seven games. Bank on him making it five in a row.
PREDICTION: Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 22.5 Pts + Reb (-118)
Warriors vs Pacers betting card
- Warriors +2 (-110)
- Under 230.5 (-110)
- Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 22.5 Pts + Reb (-118)
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