The Dallas Mavericks finally snapped a long losing streak, but are in an interesting spot as NBA betting favorites in a situation they have not been very good at—playing at home and on a back-to-back.
NBA odds opened with the Mavs as 3-point chalk against the Golden State Warriors, with an opening total that that has quickly shot up with bettors backing the Over.
All that adds up to some great betting value for us, which we explain below as we bring you our best free NBA picks and predictions for the Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks, with tip-off set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks Mavericks Betting Preview
Injuries
Warriors: James Wiseman C (Out), Kevon Looney PF (Out).
Mavericks: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against sub-.500 teams. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Mavericks.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThis line has bounced around a bit at FanDuel, opening Dallas -3.5 and getting to -4.5 late Wednesday night, dialing down to -2 this morning, then rising to -3.5 this afternoon. As of 4:30 p.m. ET, the line is still Mavs -3.5, with Golden State getting 54 percent of bets and 55 percent of money on the spread. The total is out to 229 from a 225 opener, with ticket count and money just beyond 2/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Mavericks broke a six-game SU and ATS losing streak on Wednesday, toppling Atlanta 122-116 as two-point road favorites. Now they will try to build some winning momentum at home on a back-to-back, a place – and a situation – where they haven't found much success this season.
Dallas is 2-6 SU and ATS at home, due in large part to an inability to score. After posting the third-highest points per game in the league (117.0) last season, Dallas has slumped all the way down to 23rd, averaging 109.3 ppg. It gets even worse when playing at American Airlines Center, as the Mavs put up just 104.9 ppg at home—the fourth-most futile mark in the NBA and well under last year's 117.7 home scoring average.
There's also the fact that the Mavericks are just 1-3 SU and ATS this year on the second leg of a back-to-back, which does not help them against a Warriors club that has played just one game in the last five days.
The Dubs are well-rested but they're anything but healthy, with No. 2-overall pick James Wiseman, as well as his replacement Kevon Looney, sidelined with injuries. That leaves the Warriors with basically no interior presence at all, but is that really a bad thing? The Warriors will just lean even more on perimeter playmakers Steph Curry (you might have heard of him before), Andrew Wiggins, and Kelly Oubre Jr. That trio makes up 51.7 percent of Golden State's scoring this season and they've ramped it up recently, accounting for more than 60 percent of the Dubs' offense in their recent loss against Boston.
The Warriors have won (and covered) in three of their last five games, with Curry shooting better than 50 percent from the floor and beyond the arc in four of those games. Giving him and Golden State's key scorers more looks is never a bad thing, and combined with Dallas' poor play at home and on back-to-backs, I'm taking the Dubs with the points.
PREDICTION: Golden State +3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
We mentioned Dallas' scoring struggles, which has led to it going 9-13 O/U overall – and hitting the Under in five of eight home games – this season, but what's also interesting is Golden State's penchant to play in low-scoring contests, too. The Dubs are 9-12 O/U this year, having seen scores finish below the total in three straight contests.
The total for this game opened at 224.5, with early action hammering the Over and it now currently sits at 228.5. That screams value for us, as this current number is a threshold the Warriors have finished Under in eight of their last 11 contests and a number the Mavericks have only seen just once in their last 15 games.
Dallas has the fifth-best opponent 3-point percentage, which should help limit buckets from a Golden State squad with zero interior scoring threat, while the Warriors also defend the perimeter rather well, sitting 12th in opponent 3-point shooting.
It's a high total and Dallas should have tired legs being on a back-to-back. Add in solid perimeter defense and we may see both teams do more damage from inside the arc, but you know what they say, "scoring twos ain't gonna get you to the Over."
OK, nobody actually says that. But you know what I mean. Take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 228.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
With Wiseman and Looney hurt (and Marquese Chriss out for the season), the Warriors have precisely one player in their rotation above 6-foot-7, and that's Eric Paschall, who averages 17.5 minutes per game.
That lack of size was exploited in Tuesday's loss to the Celtics, as Boston outrebounded the Dubs 62-42, and that should mean big things for Dallas superstar Luka Doncic.
Doncic has six triple-doubles already this season, as the 21-year-old point guard is averaging 27.2 points, 9.6 assists and 8.9 rebounds per game. With Golden State sending out nothing even remotely resembling a rim protector, Doncic should be able to get into the paint, where he can put up some points, rack up assists to his big men and grab some rebounds with his main competition being his own team.
In a point guard showdown with Curry, let's bet on Luka to rise to the occasion and put up another triple-double.
PREDICTION: Luka Doncic triple-double (+188)
Warriors vs Mavericks Betting Card
- Golden State +3.5 (-110)
- Under 228.5 (-110)
- Luka Doncic triple-double (+188)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Warriors vs. Mavericks picks, you could win $94.97 on a $10 bet?
Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where Can I Bet on the NBA?
You can bet on NBA odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NBA moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NBA prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NBA odds in your area.
