After getting eliminated by the Los Angeles Lakers in last season’s Western Conference finals, the Denver Nuggets’ ultimate goal this season is to take the King’s crown.
The Nuggets will get their first chance since that series to prove their worth tonight when they visit L.A. as 5.5-point underdogs. Will Denver be able to stay hot ATS against a Lakers team that's returning home after a lengthy road trip and has covered the spread just once in their last five games?
Find out with our NBA free picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Lakers on Thursday, February 4 with tipoff scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers Betting Preview
Injuries
Nuggets: Gary Harris G (Out), PJ Dozier G (Out), Greg Whittington F (Out).
Lakers: LeBron James F (Probable), Anthony Davis (Probable), Jared Dudley F (Out), Kostas Anetetkounmpo F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 8-1 in the Nuggets' last nine games as an underdog and 7-1 in the Lakers' last eight games against a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonLos Angeles opened -5.5 at FanDuel and took a couple short trips to -4.5 early today, then settled in at -5. As of 7 p.m. ET, it's two-way point-spread action with a lean toward the Lakers, who are attracting 54 percent of bets and 53 percent of money. The total is down to 216 from a 219.5 opener and 220.5 high point, but interestingly, the betting splits don't reflect that move at all: the Over is getting 89 percent of bets/88 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Nuggets enter this game winners of six of their last seven games, going 6-1 ATS in the process, but the Lakers obviously present an entirely different challenge.
The Nuggets and Lakers met six times in the NBA bubble, including the Western Conference Finals, with L.A. winning five of the matchups, but Denver went a respectable 3-2-1 ATS in those games. The closest spread was 5.5 - have the Nuggets improved enough to stay within the margin?
This matchup will be all about whether or not LeBron and Co. can effectively shut down Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets on offense. Jokic is putting up MVP numbers at the moment, averaging 26.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 8.6 assists to lead a Nuggets’ offense that ranks third in scoring, and fourth in offensive rating.
But they’ll be going up against the best defense in the NBA when they take the court against the Lakers. L.A. leads the league in defensive rating and opponent scoring.
While on the other end of the floor, the Lakers should have an edge against an inconsistent Nuggets defense that will be missing one of their better defenders in Gary Harris, but will the effects of their long road trip roll over into this game?
The seven-game road trip has to be called a success, with the Lakers going 5-2, but the offense started to sputter at the end, averaging just 100.3 points over the last four games. And sometimes the first home game after a long road trip can be the toughest.
The Nuggets have more to prove here - we’ll take the points.
PREDICTION: Nuggets +5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Usually, when two good teams face off, you can expect some higher intensity, particularly if those teams have recently met in the playoffs, and that could have some leaning towards the Under. That’s where the early money has been, but now the number may be low enough to go with the other side.
First of all, the Nuggets are one of the best Over bets in the NBA this season, going 15-5 O/U, thanks to the combination of their potent offense, and questionable-at-times defense.
The offense is really doing its part lately, scoring 114 points or more 12 times in the last 15 games, and that includes putting up 128 points against a very good Jazz defense the last time out.
On the other side, you may think of the Lakers as more of an Under team with that strong defense, and an offense that seems to have its off nights. But they tend to kick it into high gear against better teams, as the Over has gone 8-1 in their last nine games against teams with a winning record.
Not to mention that Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these two. This number is low enough to like the Over once again.
PREDICTION: Over 216.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
One of Denver’s biggest problems on defense is guarding the perimeter. The Nuggets rank 25th in opponent effective field goal percentage and 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage. And no one takes more 3-point attempts per game for the Lakers than LeBron James.
James takes 6.8 threes a game this season (the highest of his career), and is hitting an elite 40.9 percent of his attempts, resulting in 2.8 made threes per contest. He is also 13-24 from beyond the arc over his last three games, and this juicy matchup with the Nuggets has us loving the Over on his made threes prop.
PREDICTION: LeBron James Over 2.5 Made Threes (-120)
Nuggets vs Lakers Betting Card
- Nuggets +5 (-110)
- Over 216.5 (-110)
- LeBron James Over 2.5 Made Threes (-120)
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