The Minnesota Timberwolves had all the momentum in the world and two games at home to end the Denver Nuggets’ title defense. Instead, the Nuggets retook that momentum and tied the series at 2-2.
This certainly feels like the deciding game in the series, even if a Game 6 is obviously guaranteed. And it may be the deciding game in the entire Western Conference. With the Timberwolves as two-bucket underdogs in tonight's NBA odds, who should we put our trust in?
One player has shown up more in these playoffs than any other. Let’s put our trust in Anthony Edwards in our free NBA picks as we dig into Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions for Tuesday, May 14.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Anthony Edwards Over 29.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Anthony Edwards did not attack Game 3 with the urgency he needed or the energy he usually carries. Nothing underscored that lethargy more than Edwards failing to shoot a single free throw. Sure, maybe the refs treated him badly, and perhaps the Denver Nuggets' defense deserves some credit. But the onus still lies with Edwards; if he fails to shoot a single free throw, the core concern is him, no one else on the court.
He took his first free throws in Game 4 with just more than six minutes elapsed, part of scoring 11 points in that same stretch. No wonder he finished with 44 points, including 7-for-8 from the line, compared to Game 3’s 19 points.
He still played efficiently on Sunday night, going 16 of 25 from the field and 5-for-8 from beyond the arc, adding five rebounds and five assists. It may have been the best game of Edwards’s postseason career, notching playoff career highs in points, shooting percentage, and 3-point shooting percentage. He posted a +5 rating in 45 minutes in a game the Minnesota Timberwolves lost by eight.
In other words, he may not come off the floor tonight. That would be a change for the fourth-year guard, but it is not outside the realm of possibility.
Regardless, Edwards has made scoring 30-plus seem routine. In nine postseason games against the Nuggets across the last two springs, he has averaged 32.3 points. He has notched 30 or more in five of the nine, with one of the exceptions being 29 in the final game of last year’s first-round loss.
That may be the most pertinent game when thinking about tonight. Minnesota is not on the verge of elimination, but given it just lost two home games, it feels like it is. In two games facing elimination against Denver last year, Edwards averaged 31.5 points on 27 shots per game. He added seven rebounds and six assists per game.
He carries only more of an offensive workload now. If that is how he fared when it mattered most a year ago, this leveled-up form of Ant should produce even more, particularly with a better cast around him, as well.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets same-game parlay (SGP)
Anthony Edwards Over 29.5 points
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 made 3s
Under 205.5
Karl-Anthony Towns shot poorly in the Game 4 loss, just 5 of 18 from the field and 1-for-4 from deep. But Minnesota knows it needs him to keep shooting to draw some defensive pressure off Edwards. That works best when Towns is spaced around the arc, where he is one of the best shooters in the league and can leave room for Edwards to work in the lane.
Tonight of all nights, Towns should have motivation to play the game the Timberwolves design for him. The stakes are too high, and after his more contested shots were not falling on Sunday, doubling down on that would look particularly bad for the longest-tenured Wolf.
Combining two Over points props with a game Under raises the payout of this same-game parlay. And of Denver’s five home games this postseason, all five cashed the Under. The easiest reason to think points should regress tonight is that Aaron Gordon should not go 11 of 12 from the field again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds
Timberwolves vs Nuggets live odds
Get the latest Timberwolves vs Nuggets NBA playoff odds for Game 5.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +4.5| Denver -4.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +165 | Denver -185
- Over/Under: Over 207 | Under 207
Timberwolves vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver opened as a 5-point favorite after its two wins in Minnesota, but by midday Monday this spread had fallen to -4, with some books moving back to -4.5 on Tuesday morning.
- The total opened at 207 and fell to 205.5 on Monday before rallying to 206 on Tuesday morning.
- More than 50% of the betting handle is on the Under as of Tuesday morning, per BetMGM, despite only 25% of the tickets backing the Under.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets trend
Minnesota has not lost three straight games at any point in the 2023-24 season. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Timberwolves vs Nuggets latest injuries
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