2026 NBA Championship Odds: Tatum Powers Celtics Surge

So much for a gap year.

Written off by many as an afterthought when the season began, the re-tooled Boston Celtics have moved into second place in the Eastern Conference and the second spot on the NBA Championship odds board as the season enters the stretch drive.

The recent surge in confidence among bettors can be attributed to the sudden - and unexpected - return of All-NBA forward Jayson Tatum, whose presence lifts the Celtics to the status of genuine title contender.

Let’s break down the latest odds as the league races towards the playoffs.

🏆 2026 NBA Championship odds

Team		My Take
Oklahoma City Thunder	+125	Historically high 10.8 point differential.
Boston Celtics	+600	Stingiest defense in the league.
San Antonio Spurs	+650	8-2 in their last 10 games.
Denver Nuggets	+850	No. 1 offensive rating in NBA.
Cleveland Cavaliers	+1200	High-octane offense ranks 3rd in PPG.
New York Knicks	+1600	Top 10 in Defensive Rating and OREB%.
Detroit Pistons	+1800	Rank second in Plus-Minus behind only OKC.
Houston Rockets	+4000	Elite 23-9 record at home.
Minnesota Timberwolves	+4000	Top 5 in effective FG percentage.
Los Angeles Lakers	+5000	9-1 in their last 10 games.

Odds courtesy of bet365, one of our best betting sites. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.

The Thunder's odds have moved from +230 before the season began to +125 today. Rounding out the Top 5 are the Boston Celtics (+600), San Antonio Spurs (+650), Denver Nuggets (+850), and Cleveland Cavaliers (+1200).

NBA Championship odds movement

Few pundits gave the Celtics much of a shot during the offseason. After all, Jayson Tatum was expected to miss the entire campaign as he recovered from an Achilles tear and the team had just bid adieu to Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford, three critical contributors to their last championship run. The rest of the roster hardly inspired confidence in bettors, resulting in distant +2000 title odds entering the season. 

All the Celtics have done since is win. The club is just 3.5 games out of first place in the Eastern Conference and could claim the crown with the newly returned Tatum, who is averaging 20 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in his first five games back, during which time the Celtics have gone 4-1. His reemergence has Boston flying high and has resulted in the team moving from +1000 to +600 over the past two weeks.

The Celtics' big jump has resulted in lesser odds for the Nuggets, who have moved from +650 to +850. Denver is just 5-5 in its last 10 games and is reeling from a heartbreaking OT loss to the Lakers in L.A.

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📈 2026 NBA Finals odds over time

Here's a visual representation of how the NBA championship has odds evolved since the offseason.

🔮 NBA Championship prediction

Bet	Odds	Bet Date	Units
Thunder	+240	Oct. 21	1.0
Thunder	+165	Dec. 1	1.0
Spurs	+1000	Feb. 24	0.5

Oklahoma City has the cleanest runway to be the best team in 2026: an MVP-caliber engine in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander entering the heart of his prime, a two-way star wing in Jalen Williams, and a 7-footer in Chet Holmgren whose blend of rim protection, spacing, and feel supercharges modern schemes. That trio already drives elite half-court efficiency and a top-tier defense, and it’s backed by organizational continuity that reliably turns role players into playoff-useful pieces. Holmgren’s strength and timing appear to be fully NBA-hardened, unlocking more switching and fewer help-and-recover compromises, while SGA’s mid-range and foul-drawing remain matchup-proof in May and June.

Depth and optionality push the Thunder over the top. They can win big or small, play five-out without sacrificing rim protection, and toggle between pressure defense and conservative coverages depending on opponent. Crucially, they still have surplus picks and cap flexibility to plug the inevitable holes that show up in a long postseason, whether that’s a second unit scorer, another stretch big, or a specialist wing.

So, why did I decide to sprinkle half a unit on the Spurs in late February? Health. San Antonio is clicking at just the right time while Oklahoma City deals with injuries to SGA, Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell. That's a lot of star power riding the pine. Consider San Antonio my insurance policy. 

💰 Sportsbook betting splits and insights

Highest ticket percentage
•    Nuggets 8.8%
•    Thunder 8.7%
•    Mavericks 8.2%
 
Highest handle percentage
•    Thunder 17.9%
•    Mavericks 16.3%
•    Lakers 13.3%
 
Biggest liability
•    Mavericks 
•    Lakers
•    Warriors 

Data courtesy of BetMGM.

2026 NBA Championship opening odds

• Thunder +230
• Knicks +900
• Pacers +900
• Timberwolves +1000
• Cavaliers +1100
• Rockets +1200
• Lakers +1600
• Spurs +1600
• Nuggets +1700
• Celtics +2000
• Warriors +2300
• Magic +2500
• Mavericks +4000
• Clippers +4000
• 76ers +4500
• Heat +5000
• Pistons +7000
• Bucks +7500
• Grizzlies +10000
• Raptors +15000
• Suns +17000
• Kings +20000
• Pelicans +20000
• Nets +25000
• Hawks +30000
• Bulls +40000
• Trail Blazers +40000
• Wizards +60000
• Hornets +60000
• Jazz +60000

NBA Championship trends

• Since the Warriors' 2018 repeat, the NBA has seen seven different champions in seven years. This is the longest such streak since the late 1970s.
• 22 of the last 25 champions ranked in the Top 10 in Defensive Rating during the regular season.
• 23 of the last 25 champions were Top 5 in either Offensive or Defensive efficiency.
• Since 2019, nearly every champion has been led by a non-U.S. superstar or a team built on international depth.

🏀 NBA Finals winners since 2000

Year	Team	Opening Odds
2025	Oklahoma City Thunder	+950
2024	Boston Celtics	+550
2023	Denver Nuggets	+1400
2022	Golden State Warriors	+1200
2021	Milwaukee Bucks	+500
2020	Los Angeles Lakers	+1800
2019	Toronto Raptors	+6600
2018	Golden State Warriors	-168
2017	Golden State Warriors	+215
2016	Cleveland Cavaliers	+300
2015	Golden State Warriors	+2500
2014	San Antonio Spurs	+1000
2013	Miami Heat	+250
2012	Miami Heat	+225
2011	Dallas Mavericks	+3000
2010	Los Angeles Lakers	+250
2009	Los Angeles Lakers	+350
2008	Boston Celtics	+1000
2007	San Antonio Spurs	+450
2006	Miami Heat	+350
2005	San Antonio Spurs	+400
2004	Detroit Pistons	+1500
2003	San Antonio Spurs	+1100
2002	Los Angeles Lakers	+200
2001	Los Angeles Lakers	+180
2000	Los Angeles Lakers	+400

Odds courtesy of Sports Odds History.

NBA Championship Odds FAQs

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