Tyrese Maxey and the Philadelphia 76ers host the Boston Celtics on the final day of the NBA preseason. With Philadelphia's starters expected to play, my NBA preseason moneyline picks back the Sixers.
We're in for some epic battles between these teams this season, but my gut tells me the Celtics could take some of the excitement out of this one with the lineup they bring to Philadelphia.
That said, we're in the business of finding value and cashing green checkmarks. This matchup might not rank highly on the League Pass watch list, but that's not stopping me from taking the Sixers today.
Here are my NBA preseason moneyline picks and NBA picks for Friday, Oct. 16, 2026.
NBA preseason moneyline picks for Oct. 16
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Celticsvs  76ers |
68% |
 Bucksvs  Pacers |
37% |
 Raptorsvs  Pistons |
75% |
 Heatvs  Magic |
61% |
 Hawksvs  Mavericks |
53% |
 Hornetsvs  Grizzlies |
50% |
 Timberwolvesvs  Bulls |
45% |
 Wizardsvs  Pelicans |
49% |
 Kingsvs  Spurs |
27% |
 Trail Blazersvs  Warriors |
47% |
 Jazzvs  Suns |
45% |
 Nuggetsvs  Lakers |
69% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Expert NBA preseason moneyline predictions for Oct. 16
Celtics vs 76ers: 76ers
Nick Nurse said the plan is to play the Philadelphia 76ers' starters through the first half and into the third quarter before handing things over to the bench. If Philadelphia follows through with that plan, I'll back the Sixers at 68% to beat the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics played Jayson Tatum for 29 minutes at home against the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday, with several other key starters logging more than 25 minutes. If they had two days of rest instead of one — or if this were another home game — I could see Boston leaning on its starters again. However, given the schedule spot, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Celtics rest some key players.
Bucks vs Pacers: Bucks
One thing I'm confident about is that Myles Turner will be fired up for this matchup. Even in the preseason, he'll have something to prove as he returns to Gainbridge Fieldhouse to face the Indiana Pacers.
The Milwaukee Bucks rested all their key starters and bench players Wednesday against the Chicago Bulls, which suggests that their starters should be available and could see close to their usual minutes. Confident that Milwaukee's starters will get a solid workload, I'll gladly back the Bucks at 37% to win.
Raptors vs Pistons: Pistons
With the Toronto Raptors playing their starters against the New York Knicks on Thursday, tonight's game has all the makings of an all-time punt job. They'll be on the road for the second night of a back-to-back and playing their final preseason game, making it a prime spot to rest key players.
Even if the Detroit Pistons sit some of their starters, there should still be a significant mismatch in roster construction and projected minutes. I wouldn't be surprised if Toronto rests not only its starters but also key bench players, forcing the team to trot out a lineup featuring players well down the depth chart.
Heat vs Magic: Magic
This is a tough one. On the final day of preseason basketball, I'm hesitant to back road teams unless I'm confident in their projected lineups or there's a significant probability gap that gives me enough room to absorb a key player being ruled out.
Bam Adebayo missed the Miami Heat's last game with a groin injury, while Giannis Antetokounmpo played Wednesday against the Brooklyn Nets. I have a hard time believing either player will suit up for this one. With the Orlando Magic trading at just 61% to win, I'll roll with them. If their probability were closer to 70%, though, I'd have a different opinion.
Hawks vs Mavericks: Mavericks
It's the Zaccharie Risacher Bowl on the final day of preseason basketball. I'm joking, of course, but I like it when players have something to prove in the preseason, and Risacher certainly has extra motivation in this matchup.
I was confident the Dallas Mavericks would rest key players in their first game back from China, and that's exactly what happened. Now, with a rest day on Wednesday, I'm even more confident we'll see Dallas' starters take the floor at home for the preseason finale.
The Mavericks moneyline is arguably my favorite play on the board. Assuming both teams play their starters, I make Dallas closer to a 58% favorite. I'm confident the Mavericks will have their starters available, and if the Atlanta Hawks decide to rest anyone, that only increases the edge on a trade currently priced at 53%.
Hornets vs Grizzlies: Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies should be favored by more than 50% against the Hornets, who are banged up and without Coby White and Kon Knueppel.
With those absences, the offensive burden falls squarely on Brandon Miller, who hasn't looked particularly comfortable in that role during the preseason. If Miller sits or has his minutes limited, Charlotte's offense takes another significant hit, giving Memphis an even stronger edge in this matchup.
Timberwolves vs Bulls: Bulls
The Minnesota Timberwolves' starters have already played on Monday and Wednesday this week. Will they suit up for a third preseason game today? I have a hard time seeing everyone play again, especially with this matchup coming on the road against the Chicago Bulls.
If the Chicago Bulls were trading as the favorite, I'd hesitate to hit the button. But with the Bulls priced at just 45% to win, I'm willing to back them, expecting our edge could grow significantly if Minnesota sits a few key players. At this number, there's value in getting ahead of the potential lineup news.
Wizards vs Pelicans: Pelicans
I didn't expect to see the New Orleans Pelicans trading as home underdogs against the Washington Wizards in this preseason matchup. At 49%, I'll gladly back New Orleans, as I make the Pelicans closer to a 56% favorite.
One thing I really like about New Orleans is how its rotation should look once the game shifts to the bench units. Jeremiah Fears will run the offense at point guard, giving the second unit a reliable offensive engine. Fears poured in 16 points on Wednesday against the Mavericks, and his ability to create offense should help the Pelicans remain productive even after the starters leave the floor.
Kings vs Spurs: Kings
This is a similar read to the Bucks game. The Sacramento Kings rested all of their starters and key bench players on Tuesday, likely with the intention of making this matchup their dress rehearsal for the regular season. Their starters haven't played since Saturday and should be fresh enough to handle a regular-season workload.
The San Antonio Spurs are trading as 75% favorites, which feels high considering they played all their starters on Wednesday against the Suns.
At 27%, I'm willing to back the Kings, as I expect their starters to see a healthy dose of minutes. I'll take this position now and hope for favorable injury news closer to tipoff, as any key absences for San Antonio could give us an even bigger edge than the current market probabilities suggest.
Trail Blazers vs Warriors: Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers played their starters on both Monday and Tuesday, so do I expect them to suit up in San Francisco? Absolutely.
The Trail Blazers are also less vulnerable to potential absences because of their depth. If Damian Lillard is ruled out, they have Jrue Holiday, Ja Morant, and Scoot Henderson available to absorb those minutes. That kind of depth is especially valuable when handicapping preseason games.
The same can't be said for the Golden State Warriors. If Stephen Curry sits for rest, Golden State's win probability could fall off a cliff.
For all those reasons, I'll gladly back the Trail Blazers at 47%. Even if both teams' starting lineups are available, I make Portland closer to a 55% favorite because of its roster-depth advantage over Golden State.
Jazz vs Suns: Jazz
This is the one game on the board where I'm very confident we'll see starters vs. starters, giving us something close to a regular-season game in the first half.
The Phoenix Suns rested their starters on Wednesday against the Spurs, while the Utah Jazz haven't played since Monday. Both teams should have fresh starting lineups ready for their final tune-up before the regular season.
With Mark Williams out and Oso Ighodaro expected to handle most of the minutes at center, I'm backing the Jazz as 45% underdogs. Jaren Jackson Jr. is the difference-maker on both ends of the floor. He and Lauri Markkanen can put significant pressure on Ighodaro defensively while also helping protect the rim against Jalen Green and Miles Bridges.
Nuggets vs Lakers: Lakers
David Adelman said earlier this week that the Denver Nuggets' starters would play in one of their two games in Los Angeles and rest in the other. All the starters played in the first half against the Clippers on Wednesday, so if Adelman sticks to that plan, Denver should roll out its bench for this preseason finale.
On the Los Angeles Lakers' side, Luka Doncic sat out Tuesday's game for rest, which should leave him fresh and ready to play in the preseason finale. At 69%, I'm backing Los Angeles, and once the injury reports become official, I expect the Lakers' win probability to climb even higher.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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