The Phoenix Suns look very much for real. After injecting Chris Paul into a promising young core, the Suns have shone brightly this year, sitting second in the West (24-11 SU) and owning the NBA's second-best net rating (6.73).
They look to keep the heat on the rest of the conference Thursday night as they visit the Portland Trail Blazers, who Damian Lillard has kept afloat through waves of injuries.
Let's break down this NBA betting matchup with our Suns vs. Trail Blazers picks and predictions for March 11.
Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers betting preview
Injuries
Suns: Devin Booker SG (Probable), Cam Johnson SF (Out).
Trail Blazers: Harry Giles III PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Trail Blazers.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPhoenix opened -2.5 Wednesday night at FanDuel and moved straight to -4 this morning while on its way to -5 by late this afternoon. As of 7 p.m. ET, the Suns are -4.5, while taking 62 percent of spread bets and 70 percent of spread money. The total rose from 227 to 228.5 this morning, then receded to 226 a couple of times throughout the day. The total is now 226.5, and the Over is landing 88 percent of bets/94 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
For all the noise the Utah Jazz have rightfully made with their ATS destruction this season, the Suns aren't far off at a stellar 24-11 ATS, just a game back of Utah's pace.
The Suns are the only team other than Utah to rank in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating, flexing the type of two-way versatility that makes for truly dominant teams, and is difficult to game-plan against.
This is especially true for a one-way squad like Portland, who ranks 28th on defense and is severely shorthanded with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic - easily its second and third-best players - still on the chilling list.
Lillard may also find life somewhat difficult with CP3 marking him, and the Suns may even be so bold as to switch Mikal Bridges onto Lillard for added quickness and length.
Dame Time has done a remarkable job keeping Portland above water in the West, but this is one matchup that's just too tough, even for him.
PREDICTION: Phoenix -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Portland and Phoenix are the NBA's 11th and 12th-highest scoring teams this season, combining for 228.1 points per game, a notch above this game's 227 total.
The fact that both of these squads play at bottom-10 paces (Portland is 23rd, Phoenix 28th) suggests an Under, as does the fact that Phoenix is a fairly brutal defensive matchup for Lillard, who is the lifeblood of Portland's entire offense.
Phoenix checked Lillard to just 24 points (he averages a hair under 30 on the season) on 1-for-7 3-point shooting when these teams met on February 22, which seems like a bit of an outlier.
That said, count on Lillard to consider this a revenge spot, along with some adjustments from shrewd maneuverer Terry Stotts, in a game where Portland can only hope to compete by out-scoring Phoenix.
It's close, but with fresh legs all around, we're feeling an Over here.
PREDICTION: Over 227 (-110)
First quarter prop pick
In addition to being an amazing ATS bet, the Suns are the NBA's single best team against first-quarter spreads, going a pristine 25-10 on the season.
They're only 10-7 away (as opposed to a must-bet 15-3 at home), but they're also 8-2 in their past 10 games, contrasted with the Blazers, who actually perform worse ATS at home in Q1 (7-10 at Moda Center vs. 10-8 on the road).
The Suns are only spotting the Blazers one point for the first quarter, and at the rate they're cashing this bet, it has to be taken.
PREDICTION: Phoenix first quarter -1 (-115)
Suns vs Trail Blazers betting card
- Phoenix -4.5 (-110)
- Over 227 (-110)
- Phoenix first quarter -1 (-115)
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