The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder will push each other to the limit in the Western Conference Finals, starting tonight. Coverage begins on NBC at 8:30 p.m. ET
My Spurs vs. Thunder predictions for Game 1 anticipate a low-scoring affair. However, these defenses won't be able to bottle up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama altogether.
Here are my best free NBA picks for Monday, May 18.
- UPDATE: Added a prediction for who will win tonight.
Spurs vs Thunder Game 1 prediction tonight
Who will win Spurs vs Thunder Game 1?
Spurs: The Spurs gave the Thunder fits in the regular season and finished as the only team with a winning record against OKC. The Spurs have the defensive personnel to limit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren, and with Jalen Williams still banged up, the Thunder will have a tough time getting buckets. Oklahoma City is a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs, but it faced an overachieving Suns team and a Lakers squad missing Luka Doncic.
Spurs vs Thunder best bet: Under 219 (-110)
The San Antonio Spurs boast the best defensive rating in the playoffs at a paltry 102.2, and the Oklahoma City Thunder rank sixth at 109.3.
The Spurs have surrendered just 102.5 points per game, while the Thunder have given up 104.6. Opponents are shooting just 40.5% against the Spurs, the lowest mark in the NBA.
Oklahoma City ranks second in opponent turnovers and third in steals, and they can disrupt San Antonio’s rhythm and potent scoring attack.
I’ll take the Under as these powerhouses trade blows and make life difficult for one another on offense.
COVERS INTEL: At home in the playoffs, the Thunder have allowed just 97 points per game and forced 20 turnovers, both Top 2 marks in the Association.
Spurs vs Thunder Game 1 same-game parlay
The Spurs have won and covered seven of their last 10 games, and all three of their losses came by five points or fewer. The Thunder are 5-3 ATS in the postseason, but they haven’t yet faced a team that is this familiar with them. The Spurs can keep things close on the road.
Victor Wembanyama has recorded 14+ rebounds in five of his last six games with at least 20 minutes played. Game 1 against the Thunder should be close, and Wemby’s rebounding will be needed against the Thunder’s two-headed monster of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Spurs vs Thunder SGP
- Under 219
- Spurs +6.5
- Victor Wembanyama Over 13.5 rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: MVP matchup
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his second straight NBA MVP as the overwhelming favorite over Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. Wemby should have a little extra fire after getting snubbed, and he can will his team to victory.
Wembanyama scored 25+ in four of his last eight games with 20+ minutes, and he reached that mark in two of his last three road contests.
Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 29.1 points in the playoffs, but the Thunder have cruised thus far. Monday’s tilt against the Spurs should be highly competitive, and he’ll be needed for 30+.
Spurs vs Thunder SGP
- Spurs moneyline
- Victor Wembanyama Over 24.5 points
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points
Spurs vs Thunder odds for Game 1 tonight
- Spread: Spurs +6.5 (-110) | Thunder -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Spurs +195 | Thunder -240
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 (-110) | Under 221.5 (-110)
Spurs vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Spurs and Thunder hit the Under in all three head-to-head matchups at Paycom Center this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Thunder.
How to watch Spurs vs Thunder Game 1 tonight
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Monday, May 18, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Spurs vs Thunder latest injuries
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