Rockets vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Houston Surprises Home Favs

Golden State's still one of the NBA's best teams at face value, with but without Draymond Green, it has been falling apart of late. Find out why Houston can take advantage with our Rockets vs. Warriors picks.

Last Updated: Jan 21, 2022 11:39 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Christian Wood Houston Rockets NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We've got a packed slate of hoops this Friday with 11 games on the NBA betting board with the final matchup taking place between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET.

This is a showdown between one of the best teams in the league in the Warriors and one of the worst in the Rockets and the NBA betting lines reflect that with the Dubs coming in as 10.5-point home favorites. Here are our best free Rockets vs. Warriors NBA picks and predictions for January 21.  

Rockets vs Warriors odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Warriors opened as 10.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 228. As of 11 a.m. ET, those numbers have held firm at most books with some books offering Warriors -10 and a total of 228.5. When these teams previously met up in November, the Warriors won 120-107 at Chase Center, pushing as 13-point favorites.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Rockets vs Warriors predictions

Predictions made on 01/21/2022 at 11:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Rockets vs Warriors game info

Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Date: Friday, January 21, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: ATTSN-SW, NBC Sports Bay Area

Rockets vs Warriors betting preview

Injuries

Rockets: John Wall PG (Out).
Warriors: Draymond Green PF (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Warriors.

Rockets vs Warriors picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

On the surface, handicapping this game should be simple enough. You've got the team with the second-best record in the league in the Warriors playing at home against the team with the worst record in the conference in the Houston Rockets. And 10.5-point chalk really doesn't seem too much for a Golden State squad that has an average scoring margin on plus-13.5 ppg at home. Easy peasy, we're going for the home side, right? Not so fast, when you consider the recent play of these teams. 

The Rockets are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games and most recently defeated the Jazz by a score of 116-111 as 14-point road underdogs. The Warriors are fresh off a 121-117 overtime loss to the Pacers last night and have lost six of their last nine games while going 3-7 ATS in their previous 10 contests. 

A big reason for the Warriors' skid has been the absence of All-Star big man Draymond Green who has missed the last two weeks with a calf injury which is linked to back issues. Golden State has really missed Green, who is both their defensive anchor and their top facilitator on offense. While the Warriors recently got back shooting guard Klay Thompson after a 31-month absence, he's still shaking off the rust as he's averaging just 21.3 minutes per game and shooting 37.2 percent from the field in six contests. 

The Rockets certainly aren't a good team, but they've been competitive lately and big man Christian Wood (17.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game) should have a matchup advantage against this depleted Golden State frontcourt. With the Warriors playing on the tail end of a back-to-back and going just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record, fade them on the spread. 

Prediction: Rockets +10.5 (-110)

The Over/Under is tough to figure out because both of these teams are at complete opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to defensive play.

The Rockets play at the fastest pace in the NBA and allow a league-high 116.5 ppg. However, the Warriors have allowed a league-low 102 ppg on 42.8 percent shooting. Those numbers get even better at home where the Dubs hold foes to just 99.4 ppg on 41.4 FG%. 

While the Warriors no doubt miss Green on both ends of the floor, they don't appear to have regressed much defensively while their offensive play has fallen off a cliff. They have been held to 102 points or fewer in six of their last nine games and are averaging just 104.1 ppg over that span despite a 136-point outlier against Chicago.

That said, over that nine-game span they still rank second in the league in defensive rating thanks to players like Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney stepping up as defenders. With the Warriors going 14-6-1 to the Under in their last 21 games as a favorite, take the Under 228 tonight. 

Prediction: Under 228 (-110)

Piggy-backing of our Over/Under analysis the Warriors team total of 119.5 seems way too high tonight. Yes, the Rockets are last in the league in scoring defense, but the Dubs have struggled to put the ball in the hoop lately.

Golden State has hit the 120-point plateau just twice in their last 21 games and is averaging 105.6 ppg over that span.

Even MVP odds favorite Stephen Curry has gone ice-cold this month, scoring fewer than 20 points in five of his last eight games and shooting just 37.4 percent from the field over that stretch. Take the Under on Golden State's team total. 

Pick: Warriors team total Under 119.5 (-115)

NBA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Rockets vs. Warriors predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $58.14 on a $10 bet?

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