Grizzlies vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Bears Thrive In High Altitude

Memphis suffered a humbling loss to the Bucks Wednesday night, but one of the NBA's hottest teams is somehow an underdog to even-more-injured Denver. We're not buying it and backing the dogs on the moneyline with our Grizzlies vs. Nuggets picks.

Last Updated: Jan 21, 2022 10:12 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Ja Morant Memphis Grizzlies NBA
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The Memphis Grizzlies look to stay near the top of the Western Conference standings as they head to Ball Arena to face off against the Denver Nuggets on Friday night.

After an 11-game winning streak, the Grizz have lost two of their last three, and oddsmakers expect them to come up short again, installing the Nuggets as 3.5-point home favorites tonight.

Here are our best free Grizzlies vs. Nuggets NBA picks and predictions for Friday, January 21, with tipoff at 9 p.m. ET.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The line opened with the Nuggets as 3.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 221. Early money has come in on the Over, shifting the total to 222.5. When these teams previously met up in November, the Grizz won 108-106 as 1-point home faves.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets predictions

Predictions made on 01/21/2022 at 9:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Grizzlies vs Nuggets game info

Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Date: Friday, January 21, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Southeast - Memphis, Altitude 

Grizzlies vs Nuggets betting preview


Grizzlies: Tyus Jones PG (Out), Dillon Brooks SG (Out), Killian Tillie PF (Out), Desmond Bane SG (Out).
Nuggets: Bryn Forbes SG (Probable), JaMychal Green PF (Out), Jamal Murray SG (Out), Michael Porter Jr. F (Out), Vlatko Cancar F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Grizzlies are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Nuggets.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 126-114 road loss in Milwaukee but are still a sizzling 12-2 AU and 11-3 ATS since Christmas. Memphis now has the third-best record in the league at 31-16 and ranks in the Top 10 in both offensive rating and defensive rating. 

The Nuggets are fresh off a 130-128 overtime win against the Clippers on Wednesday and have won three of their last four games with a pair of victories coming by more than 30 points and a 23-point home loss to Utah on Sunday. As that span suggests, the Nuggets have really struggled with consistency this season and they are lucky to have reigning NBA MVP Nikola Jokic bail them out of tough spots. 

Denver is three games above .500 and ranks 14th in the league in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating. Jokic leads the way with 25.9 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game but the Nuggets don't have much scoring punch behind him and they really miss Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., who are both sidelined long-term following surgery. 

The Grizzlies are missing a few key pieces of their own with second and third-leading scorers Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane sidelined, along with backup point guard Tyus Jones, but they have a deep lineup led by dynamic guard Ja Morant and his 24.7 ppg.  

While the Grizz will have their hands full with Jokic, they have the advantage in the backcourt and have been in far better form lately. Since Boxing Day they have looked like the best team in the league, picking up wins against Phoenix, Golden State, Brooklyn, Cleveland, and Chicago.

They have also played very well on the road going 14-7 SU this season and covering the spread in 12 of their last 14 away contests.  Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning record on the road. Take Memphis with the points. 

Prediction: Grizzlies +3.5 (-110)

The Nuggets typically play at a slow pace, but they have been filling up the hoop lately, dropping at least 130 points in three of their last four games and surrendering at least 125 in their previous two contests. 

The Grizzlies run at one of the fastest tempos in the league and lead the league in fastbreak points per game (16.7). They've also scored at least 114 points in seven of their last eight games overall and have gone 7-2 O/U in their previous nine contests on the road. 

Expect Memphis to push the pace tonight and take the Over. 

Prediction: Over 222.5 (-110)

Frankly, there's lots of reason to like the Grizzlies in this one. They're the better team on both ends of the floor, have excelled on the road, and are red-hot over the last month.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets continue to be overvalued at home, have been very up-and-down, and are far too reliant on Jokic to win them games. We're backing the Grizzlies to take this one outright. 

Pick: Grizzlies moneyline (+140)

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