The New York Knicks have dropped their first two games of the season, but they'll catch a break Sunday when a struggling Orlando Magic team visits Madison Square Garden without its best player, Paolo Banchero. I'm backing the Knicks to secure their first win of the season in my NBA moneyline picks.
I'm also siding with the Utah Jazz against the Los Angeles Lakers. Here are my latest NBA picks for Oct. 25.
NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 25
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Lakers Jazz |
32% |
 Pacers Nets |
69% |
 Clippers Thunder |
89% |
 Magic Knicks |
73% |
 Raptors Timberwolves |
41% |
 Pistons 76ers |
46% |
 Grizzlies Kings |
37% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 25
Lakers vs Jazz: Jazz
Walker Kessler has been a beast for the Lakers to start the season, but this matchup against his former team presents some challenges for the rim-protecting big man.
With Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. both capable of knocking down 3-pointers, Utah can pull Kessler away from the paint and create driving lanes for its guards.
That could be significant against Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, who aren't the strongest isolation defenders. Darryn Peterson and Keyonte George possess the tools to exploit those matchups.
At 32%, I really like the Jazz here, pricing them closer to 37% to beat the Lakers on Sunday.
Pacers vs Nets: Pacers
The Indiana Pacers were a massive disappointment in Friday's loss to the Dallas Mavericks. But I'll back them again at 69% against the Brooklyn Nets, as I price Indiana closer to a 75% favorite.
The two-man actions between Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac as the screener should create consistent advantages against Brooklyn's young guards, Egor Demin and Nolan Traore.
Indiana's depth is another key factor, especially with Aaron Nesmith back in the lineup. The Pacers should be able to extend their lead even when the starters are on the bench.
Clippers vs Thunder: Thunder
I know 89% is a steep probability to lay, and it's not a price everyone will want to hit the button on. However, the edge still lies with the Thunder, as I project them closer to 93% favorites.
If you want to capitalize on that edge while targeting a bigger payout, consider taking the Thunder against the spread instead.
Magic vs Knicks: Knicks
Paolo Banchero is out with a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss significant time.
The Orlando Magic have navigated stretches without Banchero before, winning plenty of games with Franz Wagner leading the offense. However, this isn't an ideal matchup for that approach against the defending NBA champions.
Without the Banchero-Wagner pairing, New York can deploy three switchable defenders in Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart to key in on Wagner.
Banchero's injury also carries extra weight in my projections because Anthony Black is questionable and has yet to suit up for Orlando this season.
Raptors vs Timberwolves: Raptors
Fading the Minnesota Timberwolves to start the season hasn't been kind to me, but I'm going back to that well for a third straight game with the Toronto Raptors trading at 41%.
There's a chance my projections aren't giving LaMelo Ball's acquisition enough credit, and I'll need to dig deeper into that. Still, we can all agree the Raptors are contenders in the East, so it's not surprising to see value at this price.
Toronto boasts multiple players in Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, and Immanuel Quickley who can attack Rudy Gobert's drop coverage with their mid-range jumpers rather than challenging him at the rim.
Pistons vs 76ers: Pistons
This matchup between two of the Eastern Conference's top teams comes with a lengthy injury report.
LeBron James is sitting out Saturday, so I'd expect him to return Sunday. However, it appears he could be rotating days off with Joel Embiid, who's playing Saturday but expected to sit Sunday.
Embiid's absence would be a major break for Detroit, especially with Jalen Duren ruled out and Paul Reed set to start. The drop-off from Duren to Reed is less significant in my projection when he's facing Adem Bona instead of Embiid.
Ausar Thompson is also questionable, but even with all these factors considered, I'll roll with the Pistons at 46%.
Grizzlies vs Kings: Kings
Zach Edey has been ruled out for Sunday's game due to injury management, which is a huge boost for Domantas Sabonis and the Sacramento Kings. Sabonis thrives on attacking the paint and battling for rebounds, but Edey's size and shot-blocking ability make that a difficult matchup.
Cedric Coward is also questionable for Memphis after missing Friday's game against the Warriors.
With Edey out and Coward questionable, the Grizzlies are too expensive at 64% on the road in Sacramento. I'll back Darius Acuff Jr. to light the beam at 37%.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Jazz
Raptors
Kings
Let's go for the half-court heave with Sunday's combo, pairing all three underdogs on our card for a big 20.21x payout.
The Jazz and Raptors are two of my favorite trades on the board, and the Kings aren't going 0-82 this season.
They'll find wins somewhere on the schedule, and this looks like a great spot against a young Grizzlies team playing on the road after an emotional comeback victory over the Warriors on Friday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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