A hobbled Jalen Brunson couldn’t save the New York Knicks down the stretch in Game 5, but he’ll get another chance to take down the Detroit Pistons tonight as the series shifts back to Little Caesars Arena.
Though he’s New York’s best scorer, he impacts the game in other ways, too. After digging through the Jalen Brunson odds, my NBA picks for this May 1 clash point to a playmaking clinic.
Jalen Brunson player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jalen Brunson best bet
Over 7.5 assists (-105 at bet365)
"I’m all good."
That was Jalen Brunson’s assessment of the ankle injury that forced him off the court in Game 5, but it’s fair to wonder whether he’s going to have a tougher time getting to his spots after just a single rest day.
So, while 30+ points might be a stretch when the Detroit Pistons are determined to make other New York Knicks shooters beat them, there’s a more compelling case for the Over on Brunson’s assists tally tonight.
He’s dished 42 dimes through the first five games of this series, including 11 assists in Game 4. By now, he knows what to expect from Detroit’s primary defenders, Ausar Thompson and Dennis Schroder. Brunson even racked up seven helpers on Tuesday — in fewer minutes than usual — despite New York making just nine 3-pointers.
It’s also time for Tom Thibodeau to amp up the two-man game with Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT showed off his range with clutch shots in Detroit earlier in the series, and the Knicks’ easiest path to points surely involves more of that pick-and-pop action.
This is a New York team that finished ninth in points per game during the regular season, and just outside the Top 10 in assists. We’ve only seen that offense in spurts over the past 10 days, but I expect Brunson to get the visitors back on track here and punish the Pistons for helping off reliable 3-point shooters.
In those instances, Brunson tends to make the right read, and it was encouraging for the Knicks to see OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges combine to go 15-for-29 from the field in Game 5.
New York needs a big Brunson performance to close out this series, so look for a workload of 40+ minutes once again – and a healthy dose of assists.
Jalen Brunson same-game parlay
Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 assists
Jalen Brunson 25+ points
Jalen Brunson Over 0.5 steals
While I’m wary about going all-in on the Brunson points O/U, the 25+ milestone feels like a safer play — and, as long as he’s on the court, he’s going to be aggressive.
He was held to 4-for-16 shooting in Game 5 without ever really finding a rhythm, yet he’s still averaging 29.8 ppg in the series. I’m banking on 20+ field attempts and a reliable volume at the free-throw line tonight.
There are other capable scorers in this New York starting five, but the ball is going to be in Brunson’s hands when the chips are down.
The Over on 0.5 steals feels like a solid third leg for this SGP. Brunson averaged almost one steal per game during the regular season and, though he’s only swiped two in this series, it would be a timely moment for the Knicks to shade the turnover battle.
Turnovers can certainly be a pain point for the Pistons, and Cade Cunningham has had five or more giveaways in every game so far. In what could be another gritty slugfest, I’m backing Brunson to come away with at least one steal.
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