The second year of the Johnathan Smith era in East Lansing gets underway Friday night as the Michigan State Spartans host the Western Michigan Broncos.
The Spartans are banking on improvement this season, whereas the Broncos lose plenty of experience from a season ago, making continuity an issue.
See why I’m riding with the home favorite in my Western Michigan vs. Michigan State predictions and college football picks for Friday, August 29.
Western Michigan vs Michigan State prediction
Western Michigan vs Michigan State Best bet: Michigan State -20.5 (-110)
Jonathan Smith’s identity as a coach involves a long-term game plan in which he develops players and sees gains from one year to the next. After a 5-7 debut in 2024, the expectation is for a bowl game in Year 2 with the Michigan State Spartans.
The timeline may have sped up a bit now that there’s a new athletic director in East Lansing, with J Batt being hired in June. Smith hit the portal and brought in some instant contributors, and the hope is for the additions to gel with improvements from the retained talent.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles possesses immense ability, but struggles with turnovers, decision-making, and consistency. That’s to be expected from a first-year starter at what was a lower-run Big Ten team, but it’d be a surprise if he doesn’t look much better in 2025. Nick Marsh balled out as a true freshman and will be a go-to stud at wideout, and the portal additions around him and in the trenches should help.
The Western Michigan Broncos go from top-10 in experience to outside the top-100. Four starters are gone from the offensive line, and a porous defense (127th in success rate) returns just three starters.
Western Michigan vs Michigan State same-game parlay
The Spartans better get off to a hot start offensively with Chiles and Marsh firing on all cylinders against a MAC defense simply not equipped to stop the dynamic duo.
From there, they can sit on the ball and protect a comfortable lead, if all goes according to plan. Both squads ranked outside the top 100 in tempo last season and prefer to avoid shootouts.
Our deep-ball SGP: TEASER
This game script involves Michigan State finding offensive success in the first half — but not Western Michigan — in a game with limited possessions, and then cooling its jets with Boston College on deck.
Western Michigan vs Michigan State odds
- Western Michigan vs. Michigan State spread: Michigan State 20.5
- Western Michigan vs. Michigan State moneyline: Western Michigan +707, Michigan State -1281
- Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Over/Under: 49.5
Western Michigan vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Western Michigan is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games against FBS opponents. Find more college football betting trends for Western Michigan vs Michigan State.
How to watch Western Michigan vs Michigan State
| Location | Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI |
| Date | Friday, August 29, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1, FOX One |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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