Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Memphis Falls Flat in First Half

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been doing a stellar job of shutting down opposing offenses, and the feeble Memphis Grizzlies should be run out of the building early, per our NBA betting picks.

Feb 28, 2024 • 15:19 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Just more than a month ago, the Minnesota Timberwolves were on the second night of a back-to-back when the Memphis Grizzlies visited as 12.5-point underdogs on a weeknight. The Timberwolves won 118-103 thanks to a 17-6 run in the game’s final six minutes.

Tonight, Minnesota is on the second night of a back-to-back with Memphis visiting as a 12-point underdog. All logic expects a repeat of January’s matchup, but how does that best set up betting value in the NBA odds?

The obvious and profitable approach will be trusting the NBA’s best defense in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves on Wednesday, February 28.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves odds

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves predictions

If able to set bias aside, handicapping a team that you follow closely is good process. You may notice trends before sportsbooks do, you may recognize changes in approach, etc. As I, a Minnesota Timberwolves season-ticket holder, noted in yesterday’s handicap for the Spurs trip to Minnesota, “across the last month of actual action — take a five-week sample size right now, to account for the All-Star Break — 10 of the Timberwolves’ last 16 opponents have fallen short of their team totals. Fittingly, Minnesota is 10-6 outright in that stretch.”

Update that to 11 of the Timberwolves’ last 17 opponents, with Minnesota now 11-6 in that stretch.

This trend isn’t slowing anytime soon. Remove some obvious exceptions — vaguely competitive teams getting late boosts because the Timberwolves’ offense stalled out, other blowouts creating garbage-time surges from opponents’ offenses — and this trend should be emphasized against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

But one of those blowouts creating a garbage-time surge nearly came last night, the Spurs scoring eight points in the final 1:40 to get within the hook of their team total. Another was just before the All-Star Break in Portland.

Let’s protect against that by betting against the Grizzlies’ offense specifically in the first half.

And if some part of you worries Memphis might get up for this rivalry game even in its lost season, then remember the Grizzlies’ offensive rating ranks No. 28 in the NBA since Jan. 1, ahead of only the Blazers and the Hornets.

My best bet: Grizzlies team total Under 47.5 1H (-112 at DraftKings)

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

Grizzlies team total Under 47.5 1H

Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 23.5 points

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 made 3s

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Finding an individual Grizzlies player to bet an Over on their points prop while doubting Memphis’s offense outright creates an aggressive payout in this same-game parlay, the sportsbook algorithms baffled by that counter-intuitive combination.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is the clear piece of Memphis to tail, and not just because he is the only franchise cornerstone playing this season. Minnesota’s one defensive weakness is against floor-spreading big men. Someone like Jackson can put Karl-Anthony Towns into tough defensive spots on the perimeter.

Exhibit A: Jackson scored 36 points in that game a month ago, going 3 of 6 from deep.

As for Towns, there was some thought of making the best bet a half-unit play on him scoring Minnesota’s first bucket tonight, but that team-specific first scorer prop is not widely available. Risking the opening tip against Jackson makes the overall first scorer prop less appealing, even with Towns at +600 at FanDuel.

Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch is deliberate about highlighting a player when they need it. Usually, an on-court funk sparks that. Tonight, Towns is returning to the lineup after missing Tuesday night due to a personal loss.

Finch likely will run some of the offense through Towns tonight more than usual.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Grizzlies vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

Before beating San Antonio last night, Minnesota opened as a 12.5-point favorite for tonight’s game, a number that climbed to -13.5 and then dropped to -11.5 after that easy win. It has since stabilized at -12, the market expecting Anthony Edwards to play after tweaking his ankle last night.

Keep an eye on the Timberwolves’ availability report, though. If Mike Conley takes the night off — a rarity for the organization but an understandable move for the veteran on a back-to-back — then Minnesota should not be trusted with a double-digit spread.

The total opened at 216.5 and immediately started to fall, the sportsbooks simply getting a number wrong. By Wednesday morning, the total had dropped to 210.5, dropping to 209 or even 208.5 during lunch.

Give credit to Minnesota’s defense. Doubt Memphis’s offense. All items factor in.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Grizzlies’ have cashed two Unders in their two games since the All-Star Break, falling 23.25 points per game short of those totals. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves.

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Grizzlies vs Timberwolves game info

Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports North, Bally Sports SE-MEM

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