The basement-dwellers of the Missouri Valley Football Conference and the Big Ten meet Friday, Sept. 4, when Indiana State visits Purdue for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff in Week 1.
Though prediction markets project a lopsided affair with the Boilermakers as 35.5-point favorites, my official Indiana State vs. Purdue prediction and college football picks are that the final score will finish below the total.
TOP PICK
Indiana State vs Purdue prediction: Under 56.5
As -35 favorites, the Purdue Boilermakers crushed the Indiana State Sycamores 49-0 in Week 1 of 2024. That ended up being Purdue's only win that season as it finished on an 11-game losing streak. The Boilermakers also beat Indiana State 56-0 as -37 favorites in 2022.
Given how tough and deep the Big Ten is, this could be Purdue's only win this year. The Boilermakers went 2-10 last season and 0-9 in Big Ten games, and have the 18th-toughest schedule in the country this year, per ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly.
That said, Purdue will probably smoke Indiana State on Friday, and blowouts are where Overs go to die. Coaches won't waste the "good plays" in the second half if they are up big.
Defenses keep playing hard because the backups want to stand out, the losing side doesn't want to get embarrassed any further, and both teams just want to go home.
COVERS INTEL: The Under cashed on a 51.5 total when Purdue beat Southern Illinois, another FCS program, 34-17 last season. 
Indiana State vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
I like combining heavy favorites with the Under in these SGPs because it's a misconception that the Over usually hits when a big favorite covers. Plus, the payout for Purdue ATS with the Under is nearly double what it is on the Boilermakers ATS with the Over.
Indiana State was 3-9 last season and 1-7 in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. The Sycamores lost their season debut as -2.5 home favorites to the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 23-21 in Week 0.
Purdue is 4-1 to the Under in its past five games as a favorite, which is rare since it'll most likely be an underdog in every Big Ten game this season. That tells me the Boilermakers like bullying weaker teams.
Indiana State vs Purdue SGP
- Purdue -35.5
- Under 56.5
Indiana State vs Purdue odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Indiana State +35.5 | Purdue -35.5
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 (52%) | Under 56.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Indiana State 2% | Purdue 99%
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Indiana State vs Purdue weather
Supposedly, temperatures in West Lafayette, Indiana, on Friday will be in the upper-80s with a 4.0% chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Indiana State vs Purdue trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the Boilermakers' last five games as a favorite. Find more college football betting trends for Indiana State vs. Purdue.
How to watch Indiana State vs Purdue
| Location | Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date | Friday, Sept.4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | BTN |
Indiana State vs Purdue latest injuries
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