It's a quiet nine-game slate across the majors today, and I've pinpointed my best MLB moneyline picks for every single matchup.
See it all in my MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 3.
MLB moneyline picks for September 3
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Giantsvs  Pirates |
60% |
 Blue Jaysvs  Guardians |
50% |
 White Soxvs  Astros |
61% |
 Red Soxvs  Orioles |
56% |
 Brewersvs  Cubs |
52% |
 Marlinsvs  Royals |
52% |
 Raysvs  Rangers |
47% |
 Athleticsvs  Mariners |
66% |
 Cardinalsvs  Dodgers |
73% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 9-3.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 3
Giants at Pirates: Pirates
Pirates win probability: 60%
Pittsburgh has the cleaner full-game profile with Lake Bachar opening and a bullpen that’s been excellent lately, posting a 3.27 FIP over the last week with no homer damage.
San Francisco’s lineup has lacked power, while Blade Tidwell’s recent 5.81 FIP and 2.53 HR/9 give the Pirates a clear scoring path at PNC Park.
That makes Pittsburgh the side.
Blue Jays at Guardians: Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 50%
Both starters here are in good form. Tanner Bibee sports a 3.35 FIP across his last two starts, while Jose Soriano owns a 3.51 FIP during that same span.
However, Toronto's offensive form gives them the edge. The Jays have a 117 wRC+ over the last week, while the Guardians have struggled at the dish, posting an 86 wRC+.
I'll comfortably side with Toronto.
White Sox at Astros: Astros
Astros win probability: 61%
You can't ignore Luis Castillo's form right now. The White Sox trade deadline acquisition has a horrendous 11.05 FIP across his previous two appearances, allowing 5.40 HR/9 and a 51.6% hard-hit rate.
Hunter Brown, meanwhile, is dealing for the Astros, compiling a 2.85 FIP over the last two weeks. Houston isn't thriving offensively lately, but Castillo's vulnerability is the perfect opportunity for them to wake up, and they're around the league average at home.
Lock in the Astros.
Red Sox at Orioles: Red Sox
Red Sox win probability: 56%
Jake Bennett is lights out for the Red Sox, carrying a 2.33 FIP into tonight's outing over the last two weeks. He's also given up minimal home runs while consistently pounding the strike zone.
Brandon Young is in much worse shape, collecting a 4.99 FIP during that span with 1.42 HR/9 allowed. Boston's 103 wRC+ is 30 points higher than Baltimore's across the last seven games, too.
The Red Sox are the clear pick.
Brewers at Cubs: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 52%
The Brewers will be feeling confident with Logan Henderson on the bump tonight against the Cubbies. He has a 2.87 FIP across his last 13 innings of work, allowing minimal walks and home runs.
That will be key against a red-hot Chicago offense, which has posted a ridiculous 180 wRC+ in the last week. But Henderson is in the type of form that can slow them down, even if it might not be a flawless outing.
Kevin Gausman has shown vulnerability lately, collecting a 4.10 FIP with 1.61 HR/9 over the last month. Milwaukee is also crushing baseballs with a 137 wRC+ in its previous seven games.
We could see lots of runs here, but the Brewers have the slight edge on the hill.
Marlins at Royals: Royals
Royals win probability: 51%
Kansas City's offensive form is the decider tonight. The Royals have a 125 wRC+ in the last week, and although Sandy Alcantara has been impressive lately with a 2.40 FIP, he has struggled at times on the road, posting a 4.41 FIP this season.
Michael Wacha owns a 2.37 xERA recently with minimal home runs allowed, and the Marlins are right around the league average offensively at the moment.
Take the hosts.
Rays at Rangers: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 47%
Shane McClanahan has looked decent, but I really like the Rangers' offensive profile in this matchup. They're one of the few lineups that thrive against left-handed pitching, posting a 112 wRC+ this season.
Cal Quantrill has also been fantastic lately for Texas, and his 2.93 FIP over the last two weeks will be sufficient to contain the Rays tonight.
Texas is the play.
Athletics at Mariners: Mariners
Mariners win probability: 66%
The Mariners are swinging it with authority, carrying a 109 wRC+ and 10% barrel rate over the last week into tonight's contest. They will face Jack Perkins, who has a 6.20 FIP recently, with major command and home run issues.
Kade Anderson has had his problems as well lately, but his 2.29 xERA suggests he's been better than the numbers say, and he's limited opponents to a 32.1% hard-hit rate in his last two appearances.
Seattle will keep flourishing.
Cardinals at Dodgers: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 73%
Obviously, the win probability doesn't scream value here, but you simply cannot go against Tarik Skubal. He sports a ridiculous 0.56 FIP over his last two starts with the Dodgers, not allowing a single home run. The Cardinals are right around the league average offensively lately, but Skubal's dominance is hard to ignore.
Quinn Matthews has held his own as well with a 3.56 xERA recently, but his 40% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks shows vulnerability, and the Dodgers have an impressive 105 wRC+ against left-handed hurlers.
Another win for L.A. here.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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