I got one more crack this week before the big long weekend, and I'm not taking losing vibes into the end of the summer. Home run and MLB player props are taking notice today.
I need Oneil Cruz to kick off the afternoon against a fringe starter who gave up three home runs just five days ago, while Alex Bregman gets his shot at lucky Logan Thompson after taking Jacob Misiorowski deep last night.
These are my favorite MLB home run props for Thursday, Sept. 3.
MLB home run props for today
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Oneil Cruz
Alex Bregman
Home run prediction: Oneil Cruz (21%)
Give me one Cruz missile to open the Thursday slate. The form is there with Oneil Cruz, who is hitting over .300 and slugging over .500 across the last two weeks with a couple of taters. His left-handed swing plays very well today against a Giants team dealing with a depleted rotation.
The Giants currently have four starters on the 60-day injured list, plus another seven relievers on the shelf. That means Blade Tidwell gets another turn after serving up three home runs in his last outing. Lefties are hitting more than 100 points better against him and doing their damage deep.
It's a warm one at PNC today, with 9-mph winds blowing out. I want Cruz in this spot at 23% or better. The lefty bats have the edge in this matchup.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, NBC Sports Bay Area
Home run prediction: Alex Bregman (15%)
Wrigley Field is one of three parks averaging three or more dingers per game this year. This series has seen more home runs than I can count on two hands, and despite some great numbers, Logan Henderson is not a bad name to fade on a small Thursday slate.
Since the All-Star break, 32% of Henderson's hits allowed have gone yard, and he has allowed nine homers across 48 innings. He's been a very lucky pitcher with a .178 BABIP in the second half while stranding 100% of his runners, per FanGraphs. His lefty-righty splits are pretty even, which puts Alex Bregman and his hot bat on the card at 18.2% or better.
Bregman is on a mission, and that mission took Jacob Misiorowski deep in his last outing. He has four homers in this set alone and has launched eight home runs over his last four series (12 games). Many Cubs hitters are projected as +EV at Covers.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
- HR picks: 35-172, -12.12 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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