Yordan Alvarez is arguably the best hitter in baseball right now, but he doesn't force the issue and will take what's given to him.
With a 97th percentile walk rate, and a matchup against a pitcher he is 12-24 against in his career, Alvarez headlines my MLB player props and MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 3.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
Over 0.5 walks | -117 |
 Lawrence Butler |
Over 0.5 singles | +133 |
 Jake Bauers |
Over 0.5 hits | -156 |
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 walks (-117)
Yordan Alvarez is someone pitchers need to tread with caution against at the best of times. That holds even more true in today’s matchup against Luis Castillo.
Alvarez has hammered Castillo over the years, going 12-24 with five home runs and just two strikeouts.
The Houston Astros are not hitting well as a whole, making pitching to Alvarez an even more unnecessary risk than usual.
Alvarez has walked in 58% of games he faced a right-handed starter sitting in the 40th percentile or worse in K-BB%.
I’d play this up to -130.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN
Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 singles (+133)
Lawrence Butler is sporting a .294 average over the last 30 games, and has reached safely in 16 of his past 17.
While his season numbers against lefties are nothing to write home about, he has quietly hit fastballs and sliders – which happen to be Kade Anderson’s two primary pitches.
Butler owns a .292 average facing LH fastballs, and .263 against the slider. Anderson throws one of the two pitches more than 87% of the time vs. lefties.
Nearly 71% of Butler’s hits against lefties were singles, and I like his chances of getting one today.
Play to +110.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, SEAM
Jake Bauers Over 0.5 hits (-156)
Jake Bauers has hit .268 against right-handed pitching this season, and that number has climbed to .290 over the past 30 games.
Kevin Gausman ranks in the 27th percentile in batting average allowed to left-handed hitters, making this an appealing spot for Bauers to pick up a knock.
What really makes Bauers an attractive buy is how he’s handled the fastball-splitter combination.
Bauers has hit .330 or higher against both of those pitches, and they account for nearly 95% of what Gausman throws to lefties.
I’d back Bauers to -185.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
- Prop picks: 5-4, +0.55 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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