Win or lose, when the NBA Finals are over, Victor Wembanyama is going to need a nap on his comically large bed.
The San Antonio Spurs’ superstar center has carried his team throughout the playoffs, but despite his “alien” persona, Wemby is very much human.
He looked it in the second half of Game 4, when San Antonio blew a 29-point lead to the New York Knicks with a fatigued Wembanyama slogging through 23 of 24 minutes.
With the finals swinging back to San Antonio, an extra day off between games allows the 7-footer to recharge his batteries before tonight's do-or-die Game 5 showdown.
Although we're not getting any deals in the Victor Wembanyama odds at this point in the postseason, it’s tough for my Knicks vs. Spurs predictions to turn away from his points total.
My NBA picks are taking Wemby to best his scoring prop on Saturday, June 13.
Victor Wembanyama prop pick for Game 5
Victor Wembanyama best bet: Over 28.5 points (-105 at bet365)
Victor Wembanyama scored 16 of his 24 total points in the opening half of Game 4, shooting 54.5% from the floor while collecting all three of his free-throw chances.
A glance at his shot chart in that opening 24 minutes shows a very efficient and analytics-friendly fire rate. He either attacked at the rim or let it fly from beyond the arc, shooting just 1-for-5 from deep in the first half.
Once the Wu-Tang Clan had finished igniting the Big Apple crowd during the halftime break, fatigue seemed to settle in for Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs. On top of more careless turnovers, the team’s shot selection was passive and leaned on long 3-pointers rather than the aggressive action that built the big lead.
Wembanyama’s energy got lower with every miss, and he seemed bothered by stiff defense from the New York Knicks. That pushed him further out on possessions. The second half shot chart shows Wemby drifting for mid-range jumpers, finishing just 3-for-14 in the closing two frames for eight points.
We’ve seen this from a gassed Wembanyama in these last two rounds, but we’ve also seen him return with well-rested vengeance.
He scored 26 points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals after a three-day break and dropped 32 points after a two-day gap ahead of Game 3. Wembanyama also poured in 41 points (27 in regulation) in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals following a three-day buffer between series.
The most telling part of those efforts was Wembanyama’s numbers after halftime, scoring a collective 61 points on 16-for-35 shooting while getting to the foul line for 24-for-26 success from the stripe.
When aggressive, there’s very little the Knicks have done to bottle up San Antonio’s star center. And in the wake of his off nights, head coach Mitch Johnson has made a focused effort to get Wembanyama going early on.
With the Spurs’ season on the line in Game 5, expect Wembanyama to leave it all on the floor. I see him landing on the high side of his shot attempts, with fresher legs helping him finish those looks and carry that production deep into the second half.
Victor Wembanyama same-game parlay
I might be one of the rare ones who likes San Antonio to survive Game 5. The two-day break gives Wemby rest and also allows the young Spurs to put the Game 4 collapse behind them.
New York’s comeback benefited from some lucky bounces, friendly rims, and self-inflicted wounds from San Antonio. Wembanyama will get aggressive from the opening tip, both attacking the rim and cleaning the glass.
Models call for 29+ points and as many as 15+ boards tonight.
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