Bucks vs Mavericks Picks: Which Stars Will Actually Play?

Apr 8, 2021 |
By: Zachary Cohen
Bucks vs Mavericks Picks: Which Stars Will Actually Play?
The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a 1-point loss to Golden State without star Giannis Antetokounmpo, and may have to try and win without him again tonight against Dallas.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a 1-point loss to Golden State without star Giannis Antetokounmpo, and may have to try and win without him again tonight against Dallas.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Bucks face the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday in an NBA betting matchup that should feature a matchup between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic, but Giannis’ knee pain has him questionable for this one.

Will Dallas take care of business at home at the American Airlines Center? You’ll want to keep reading out our free Bucks vs. Mavericks NBA picks and predictions to find out.

Bucks vs Mavericks odds

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NBA sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

With Giannis Antetokounmpo's status uncertain, this line jumped the fence at DraftKings, from Milwaukee -1.5 to Dallas -2.5, and as of 7 p.m. ET, the Mavs are -2. It's two-way point-spread action, with 53 percent of bets on the Bucks and 52 percent of money on the Mavericks. The total opened at 228.5, peaked at 229, dipped to 226.5 and is now 227, with 65 percent of bets on the Over and 55 percent of money on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Bucks at Mavericks betting preview

Injuries

Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo F (Questionable), PJ Tucker F (Questionable).
Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis F (Questionable), Maxi Kleber F (Questionable), Tyrell Terry G (Doubtful), Trey Burke G (Doubtful), Willie Cauley-Stein C (Out), JJ Redick G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on 0 days rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Mavericks.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

(Editor's Note: These picks were made before Thursday evening's news that Giannis Antetokounmpo would miss the Bucks' game against the Mavericks.) 

It’s going to be very important that you keep an eye out for the injury report in this game, as there’s a lot more uncertainty here than you’ll normally find. Giannis isn’t a lock to play in this one—and the Bucks just lost to the Warriors without him. However, the Mavericks are missing a whole bunch of rotation players, and Kristaps Porzingis normally doesn’t play on the second night of a back-to-back.

With neither team really at full strength in this one, the Bucks would appear to be the team that’s in better shape. Even if Giannis doesn’t play, Milwaukee still has Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, who are both capable of really doing some damage against this Dallas team. Holiday is one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball and he’s very strong for his size, so he might be able to give Luka Doncic some trouble here. Milwaukee’s role players are also a lot better than Dallas’, especially when the Mavs litany of injuries. 

The only scenario in which it makes sense to take Dallas is if Porzingis ends up playing and Giannis isn’t able to go—and that doesn't make sense to us.

PREDICTION: Bucks -1 (-110)

Over/Under pick

Even without Giannis, the Bucks found themselves in a shootout with the Warriors last game. Milwaukee lost that one 122-121 but the team wasn’t having a hard time getting buckets, and that was against a Golden State team that has flashes of good defensive play.

The Mavs do like to slow things down a lot, but they could be without both Kleber and Porzingis here. Those are their key big men in their rotation, and Dallas doesn’t really have good replacements.

PREDICTION: Over 229 (-110)

Player prop pick

Luka was absolutely miserable in a loss to the Rockets last night, scoring only 23 points on 9-of-26 shooting from the floor and 1-of-9 shooting from deep.

Look for him to get back on track in this one, as he’s just too good of a player to have two miserable performances in a row. Luka is as mentally tough as they come, so he should be able to shake it off and produce here.

His team is counting on him to carry them with so many injuries throughout the rotation, so he’ll need to put up huge numbers.

PREDICTION: Luka Doncic Over 29.5 Points (-115)

Bucks vs Mavericks betting card

  • Bucks -1 (-110)
  • Over 229 (-110)
  • Luka Doncic Over 29.5 Points (-115)
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