Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Marcus Stroman excels when he can keep the ball on the ground, but the Red Sox have done well to avoid the grounder all year long. That should rear its head early in Fenway Park tonight, as our MLB betting picks explain.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Jun 16, 2024 • 12:36 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Tyler O'Neill Boston Red Sox MLB
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The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will wrap up our weekend on Sunday Night Baseball.

This will be a rubber match after the Red Sox got revenge last night in an 8-4 win. Today will mark the Yankees' 14th game in 14 days, and my free Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for June 16 believe Boston will get the jump on this tired Bombers team.

Yankees vs Red Sox prediction

My best bet
Red Sox F5 moneyline (+120 at bet365)

My analysis

I'm backing the Boston Red Sox to get the series win today, but the best way to highlight that value is early on in the game. I'm grabbing the first five innings moneyline on the Red Sox at +120 at bet365. I projected that number to be around +105, so there's significant value.

The Red Sox have the better pitcher here, at least based on the matchup.

We've talked a lot about Marcus Stroman this season and how he's put up some nice numbers for the New York Yankees despite some surrounding metrics that aren't the kindest. That's because of an elite groundball rate in the Top 15% of baseball. Boston can counter that.

The Red Sox's hitting has started to shine lately, and eight runs last night were a good capture of that. 

The problem for Stroman in this matchup is that Boston has the second-lowest ground-ball rate in baseball coming into this game. When you can avoid that against Stroman, his other issues appear. Things like a hard-hit rate that's below average and an average exit velocity number that's even worse. This is something I expect the Red Sox hitters to jump on.

Kutter Crawford will take the mound for the Red Sox, and he can do enough here. The metrics are pretty pedestrian across the board, but he's done great at limiting the hard hits as he sits in the Top 10% of baseball in hard-hit rate. That's essential against this New York lineup.

Crawford has been poor lately, but much of that has resulted from the teams he limited the first time seeing him a second time, teams like the big bats of the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles. They've combined for 11 earned runs over two of his last three starts. Crawford saw both teams earlier this season, and in those meetings he allowed just two earned runs over 11 combined innings.

This will be the first time the Yankees will see him this season, and I expect him to put together a performance that more closely resembles what we saw from him earlier this year.

Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

Red Sox F5 moneyline

Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 total bases

As you've seen based on my handicap above, a vital part of the Red Sox having success here is avoiding the ground ball. O'Neill does that better than almost anyone else on the Boston roster, so I'm happily pairing him with my best bet for today's same-game parlay.

He's been hot in June (.346 batting average) with two hits last night, and there's a favorable matchup for him here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Red Sox odds

Yankees vs Red Sox live odds

Yankees vs Red Sox opening odds

  • Run line: New York -1.5 | Boston +1.5 
  • Moneyline: New York -142 | Boston +120
  • Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9

Yankees vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Boston has a slight edge over these two teams' last 10 head-to-head meetings, winning six times.
  • Each of these teams has that same mark over its last 10 games overall, with bettors up +1.6 units backing Boston in that stretch and +0.88 units on New York.
  • It's been dead-even from a total perspective, with an 5-5 record for the Over in the previous 10 head-to-head meetings.
  • Bettors have run to back the Yankees here as New York's moneyline has dropped close to 10 cents since its opening number.

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Yankees vs Red Sox trend

The Yankees have covered the run line in 29 of their last 39 games (+23.55 Units / 51% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox

Yankees vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Sunday, 6-16-2024
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Yankees starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
(5-2, 3.04 ERA)
Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
(2-5, 3.51 ERA)

Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries

Yankees vs Red Sox weather

Not intended for use in MA.
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