After a light MLB slate on Monday, we have plenty of betting action today with all 30 teams taking the field. One of those contests is a clash between American League East rivals, with the New York Yankees taking on the Tampa Bay Rays to kick off a three-game set at Tropicana Field.
Tampa Bay has had New York's number and will look to continue that trend with top pitching prospect Luis Patino getting the ball for his third career start.
Check out our best free picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Rays, with first pitch in St. Petersburg scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Yankees vs Rays odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonAs of 3:45 p.m. ET, the Yankees are -125 favorites at TwinSpires, a few cents off their -130 opener. The Rays are taking 61 percent of tickets and 58 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total is stable at 8, slightly shaded to the Over, with 71 percent of bets/66 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameYankees vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 4.41 ERA): The left-hander has been solid, yet unspectacular, in New York's rotation this season, allowing three runs or fewer in four of six starts while going six innings in three of them. The two starts he allowed more than three runs came against these very same Rays, who tagged him for four runs each in back-to-back outings in April. Montgomery punched out a season-high-tying seven batters the last time he faced Tampa Bay but his strikeout rate is down this season. He's coming off a six-inning outing against the Astros, in which he logged his second quality start of the season.
Luis Patino (1-0, 1.17 ERA): Patino will make his second start for the Rays and first since April 25. His last two appearances have come in relief, the last being a May 4 outing in which he set season highs with three innings and 56 pitches thrown. Overall, the talented, young right-hander has thrown 7 2-3 innings, allowing one run while striking out 10. He dealt with some control issues during a brief stint with the San Diego Padres last season as well as during his time in the minors, but he has top-notch stuff and comes with major strikeout potential.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Gio Urshela 3B (Questionable), Rougned Odor 2B (Out), Darren O'Day RP (Out).
Rays: Kevin Kiermaier OF (Out), Francisco Mejia C (Out), Diego Castillo RP (Out) .
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Rays' last four games against a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays.
Moneyline pick
The Yankees will be up against the 21-year-old Patino, an electric arm who was the headliner of the Blake Snell deal with the Padres. Patino, considered to be among the best pitching prospects in baseball, is an exciting arm for the Rays with a putaway slider and a fastball that can touch the upper-90s. While he's isn't likely to go deep in this game, seeing how he hasn't reached the 60-pitch mark in an outing this season, the Rays might be able to stretch him into the fourth inning if he's efficient.
There's a lot to like about what he's capable of doing for as long as he's on the mound. Patino has struck out 11.2 batters per nine innings in the big leagues, and allowed only four baserunners this season, and will get a Yankees lineup that hits significantly worse against right-handed pitching. No one in the Yankees lineup, which is right-handed heavy, has seen Patino before.
Montgomery, meanwhile, will face the Rays for the third time already and struggled in both outings. While that doesn't mean he can't shut down this lineup, which is far from fearsome, Rays hitters should have a good game plan going into this one and a key homer is likely what will tip the scales. Montgomery historically struggles with the long ball and the Rays clubbed two off him both times they faced him last month.
The Rays have won 13 of the last 16 regular-season meetings with the Yankees, including five of six contests this season. Tampa Bay is 5-2 versus the Yanks at Tropicana Field dating back to last season and is worth betting on at plus money as an underdog for tonight's series opener.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay (+115)
Over/Under pick
The Yankees have come to life, using a 7-2 stretch to jump into a second-place tie with the Rays in the AL East standings.
They've been hitting a lot better, but righties have given them problems. Against lefties, New York is a Top-5 team in the majors in weighted runs created plus and OPS, while ranking seventh in batting average and ninth in on-base percentage. But versus righties, the team is dead last in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 17th in wRC+. The Yanks should expect to see a steady stream of right-handers tonight.
As for their pitching, Montgomery should be able to escape big damage, even if he serves up a dinger, as a result of the Rays' swing-and-miss tendency. Tampa Bay gets punched out at the third-highest rate in baseball (second versus left-handed pitching) and has a .290 on-base percentage against lefties which ranks 24th in baseball. And reaching base will only get more difficult once Montgomery turns the ball over to the bullpen.
Yankees relievers are punching out the highest percentage of batters in the majors and also rank first with a collective WHIP of 1.02. The group doesn't issue many free passes, has allowed the least amount of contact among all relief corps (and is facing a team that has the worst contact percentage in MLB), and has the second-best bullpen ERA in the AL at 2.79.
Tampa's bullpen hasn't been as sharp as New York's and will be relied on heavily based on the shorter workload we're expecting out of Patino, but the group is tied with New York for the fourth-lowest walk percentage in baseball and has the fifth-lowest home-run-to-fly-ball rate going into a matchup against a Yankees team that crushes bombs and puts the ball in the air a lot. The Rays also just returned a key reinforcement from the injured list in hard-throwing righty Pete Fairbanks.
This is going to be a tough game to plate runs in and with it taking place at Tropicana Field, a pitcher's park that has not been a great offensive environment this season, we like the Under to cash tonight.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)
Yankees vs Rays betting card
- Tampa Bay (+115)
- Under 8 (-110)
Picks made on 5/11/2021 at 9:05 a.m. ET
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