It’s a National League East showdown as the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals open a three-game set tonight at Nationals Park.
The Phillies have dropped two in a row to fall out of first place in the division while the Nats are looking to jump-start their season after losing five of their last six to fall to the basement in the NL East standings.
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Nationals on Tuesday, May 11, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Phillies vs Nationals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonWashington landed on TwinSpires' odds board as -114 chalk, moved up to -127 earlier today and is out to -137 as of 3:45 p.m. ET. The Phillies are landing 57 percent of tickets, while the Nationals are getting 75 percent of money. "Sharp money on the Nationals," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total is steady at 9, with the Over taking 59 percent of tickets/56 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePhillies vs Nationals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Chase Anderson (1-3, 5.54 ERA): What you see is what you get with Anderson at this point of his career. You will get four to five innings out of the guy and he will give up at least a couple of runs on a handful of hits. Anderson has also had an issue with walks this season, giving up 14 free passes compared to 21 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched this season.
Erick Fedde (2-3, 5.27 ERA): Fedde is coming off his worst performance since his first start of the season, allowing five runs on five hits to the Braves in five innings. In his four starts prior to that the right-hander had a 2.61 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and was limiting opponents to a .167 batting average.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Ronald Torreyes SS (Out), Archie Bradley RP (Out), JoJo Romero RP (Out).
Nationals: Wander Suero RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in the Phillies' last seven games with a total set between 9-10.5 and is 5-0 in Erick Fedde's last five home starts versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs Nationals.
Moneyline pick
The Phillies are hoping Anderson can help them get back on track in the opener after dropping their last two games to the Braves. Anderson has done enough in his last two starts to lead the Phillies to victories. Can he keep that up against the Nats?
Well, his advanced stats don’t measure out well, ranking poorly in expected ERA, expected opponent batting average, and strikeout percentage, just to name a few.
Anderson hasn’t faced the Nationals since his time with the Brewers in 2019 but those games did not go well, allowing 16 runs in just 4 1-3 innings over two starts. Even though the Nationals have not come up with those clutch hits this season, they still rank seventh in team batting average and should get some pitches to hit from Anderson.
While Fedde has a similar ERA compared to Anderson, the Nats’ starter has been more reliable overall this season and goes against an all-or-nothing Phillies offense that strikes out a ton.
When you consider the Nats have the considerably better bullpen, we like them to strike first in this three-game set.
PREDICTION: Nationals (-130)
Over/Under pick
The total for this game has stuck to the opening number of 9 but we suggest jumping on the Over before it moves.
As noted, despite the Nationals' struggles when it comes to scoring, Anderson is a pitcher they can get to and when he’s done, he hands the ball to a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA, 22nd in WHIP, and 25th in opponent batting average.
On the other side is Fedde, who has been solid for most of the season, but has had his problems with the Phillies. In three starts against Philly last season, Fedde pitched to a 6.50 ERA and gave up five dingers.
Additionally, prior to Sunday night’s 6-1 loss to the Braves, the Over was 6-2 in the Phillies' previous eight games, plating 5.88 runs per game.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (-110)
Phillies vs Nationals betting card
- Nationals (-130)
- Over 9 (-110)
Picks made on 5/11/2021 at 1:10 p.m. ET
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