The Pittsburgh Pirates are short road favorites to complete the series sweep over the Chicago White Sox ahead of Thursday's 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch at Rate Field.
My top Pirates vs. White Sox predictions and MLB picks call for Pittsburgh to take the series finale tonight, with the total also going Over the number on Sept. 10.
Who will win Pirates vs White Sox today: Pirates moneyline (51%)
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Pittsburgh Pirates righty Jared Jones has found a groove with a solid 3.65 xERA and 3.11 xFIP across his past four starts.
The Pirates also continue to show off at the plate with a seventh-ranked wOBA and second-ranked xwOBA over the past two weeks. Of course, Pittsburgh is also second in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
It’s a different story for the Chicago White Sox.
They respectively rank 25th and 20th in the two metrics during the same stretch and are projected to hand righty Erick Fedde the ball for bulk innings behind opener Hagen Smith.
This will be Smith’s first career start, and Fedde sports a 4.68 xERA and 5.11 xFIP across his past eight appearances while allowing a healthy 38.6% squared up contact rate and 16.4% blast-contact rate.
I recommend the Pirates moneyline to 52.4%.
COVERS INTEL: The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen 
Pirates vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (53.1%)
While I’m anticipating the Pirates doing the heavy lifting to send this total Over the number, the White Sox have also played to the Over in nine of their last 13 home games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI).
Chicago also ranks eighth in ISO against righties for the season, and the American League Central Division leaders will want to leave it all on the field tonight in an attempt to avoid the series sweep.
The White Sox also average 4.9 runs per game home compared to 4.5 on the highway, so I expect Chicago to chip in tonight at Rate Field.
This Over 7.5 is in play to 54.5%.
Pirates vs White Sox home run prediction: Oneil Cruz (16.7%)
Despite an excellent 15-for-43 runs at the dish for an .824 OPS, Pirates star Oneil Cruz hasn’t left the yard across his past 11 games. He’s sporting a rock-solid 18.8% blast-contact rate and 40.0% hard-hit rate during the stretch and his high-end .206 ISO for the year doesn't have drastic splits (.175 against lefties and .222 against righties).
As a result, I like statistical correction kicking in and Cruz homering tonight.
- ML/RL bets: 56-30, +28.68 units
- Over/Under bets: 29-28, -0.79 units
Pirates vs White Sox weather
The forecast calls for early cloudy skies clearing later in the evening, comfortable temperatures hovering (73°F), and a light 5–7 mph northeast wind blowing left-to-right.
Pirates vs White Sox odds
- Moneyline: Pirates 52.4% | White Sox 52.4%
- Run line: Pirates -1.5 (39.2%) | White Sox +1.5 (64.3%)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (52.4%) | Under 8 (52.4%)
Pirates vs White Sox trend
The Pittsburgh Pirates have won eight of their last 10 games (+5.10 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. White Sox.
How to watch Pirates vs White Sox and game info
| Location | Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Thursday, September 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, CHSN |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Jared Jones (3-6, 4.46 ERA) |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Hagen Smith (3-1, 0.56 ERA) |
Pirates vs White Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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