The Pittsburgh Pirates are short road favorites to complete the series sweep over the Chicago White Sox ahead of Thursday's 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch at Rate Field.
My top Pirates vs. White Sox predictions and MLB picks call for Pittsburgh to take the series finale tonight, with the total also going Over the number on Sept. 10.
Who will win Pirates vs White Sox today: Pirates moneyline (51%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Pittsburgh Pirates righty Jared Jones has found a groove, boasting a solid 3.65 xERA and 3.11 xFIP across his past four starts.
The Pirates also continue to show off at the plate with a seventh-ranked wOBA and second-ranked xwOBA over the past two weeks. Pittsburgh also ranks second in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
It’s a different story for the Chicago White Sox. They rank 25th and 20th, respectively, in the two metrics during the same stretch and are projected to hand the ball to righty Erick Fedde for bulk innings behind opener Hagen Smith.
This will be Smith’s first career start, and Fedde sports a 4.68 xERA and 5.11 xFIP across his past eight appearances while allowing a healthy 38.6% squared-up contact rate and 16.4% blast-contact rate.
I recommend playing the Pirates moneyline to 52.4%.
COVERS INTEL: The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen 
Pirates vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (53.1%)
While I’m anticipating the Pirates doing the heavy lifting to send this total past the number, the White Sox have also played to the Over in nine of their last 13 home games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI).
Chicago ranks eighth in ISO against righties for the season, and the AL Central leaders will want to leave it all on the field in an attempt to avoid the series sweep.
The White Sox also average 4.9 runs per game at home compared to 4.5 on the road, so I expect Chicago to chip in offensively at Rate Field.
This Over 7.5 is playable to 54.5%.
Pirates vs White Sox home run prediction: Oneil Cruz (16.7%)
Despite an excellent 15-for-43 run at the dish (.824 OPS), Pirates star Oneil Cruz hasn’t left the yard across his past 11 games.
Cruz is sporting a rock-solid 18.8% blast-contact rate and 40.0% hard-hit rate during the stretch, and his high-end .206 ISO for the year doesn't have drastic splits (.175 against lefties and .222 against righties).
I like the idea of statistical correction kicking in and Cruz homering tonight.
- ML/RL bets: 56-30, +28.68 units
- Over/Under bets: 29-28, -0.79 units
Pirates vs White Sox market trends
Here is how trusted Polymarket traders are dealing tonight's Pirates vs. White Sox matchup, with heavy volume on the Chicago hosts.
Pirates vs White Sox weather
The forecast calls for cloudy skies early before clearing later in the evening, comfortable temperatures around 73F, and a light 5-7 mph northeast wind blowing left to right.
Pirates vs White Sox odds
- Moneyline: Pirates 52.4% | White Sox 52.4%
- Run line: Pirates -1.5 (39.2%) | White Sox +1.5 (64.3%)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (52.4%) | Under 8 (52.4%)
Pirates vs White Sox trend
Pittsburgh has won eight of its last 10 games (+5.10 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. White Sox.
How to watch Pirates vs White Sox and game info
| Location | Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Thursday, September 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, CHSN |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Jared Jones (3-6, 4.46 ERA) |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Hagen Smith (3-1, 0.56 ERA) |
Pirates vs White Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
