The NFL betting volume took some heat off the MLB player prop market yesterday, and I took advantage with a big day on the diamond, including a pair of dingers. I still have juice to sprint to the finish line.
My home run props are looking for a Jake Burger blast vs. Logan Gilbert. But Ryan Feltner is the pitcher worth exploiting most, and we're buying Bronx Bombers Cody Bellinger and Luis Garcia to make some noise on Thursday, Sept. 10.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + combo.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Cody Bellinger |
18.3% |
 Jake Burger |
16% |
| Luis Garcia |
24% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 107.4x |
Home run prediction: Cody Bellinger (18.3%)
Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner is the biggest pitcher target today. He has the worst HR/9 among today's starters dating back to last year and is pitching in the toughest environment on the slate.
The wind is blowing out to the short porch at Yankee Stadium, and Feltner gives up more slugging to left-handed bats. It's another great day to target New York Yankees lefties.
Cody Bellinger cashed yesterday at 17% with a fair price of 20%. I might move that fair price closer to 21%, making today's 18.3% an easy call for my MLB picks.
Todd Cordell has a complete look at this game with his Rockies vs. Yankees predictions.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, Rockies.TV
Home run prediction: Jake Burger (16%)
Logan Gilbert has the fifth-worst HR/FB rate among starters in the second half at 21.8%, along with the 11th-worst HR/9 at 2.12. He just gave up four dingers in his last start and has surrendered 11 home runs since Aug. 1, with lefties and righties both hitting him for power.
I'll roll with Texas Rangers slugger Jake Burger. I have his fair price at 20%, so there's plenty of value on a batter with nine homers in the second half.
He's gone deep three times over the last three games and brings a hot bat against a cold arm, with a great price on a small slate.
For a deeper dive into this afternoon's clash, consult Neil Parker's Rangers vs. Mariners predictions.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSN, Mariners.TV
Home run prediction: Luis Garcia (24%)
Let's get one more left-handed bat against Ryan Feltner in the best home-run environment on the board. Feltner is the best HR target, and Yankee Stadium is the best backdrop for four-baggers. It makes sense to grab another left-handed Yankee bat on a small Thursday slate.
Garcia went deep yesterday at a similar price and has multiple hits in both games of this series. Aaron Judge is back in the lineup, and that only helps the hitters behind him, including Garcia.
The Rockies' bullpen is still one of the worst in baseball and owns the dead-last second-half ERA.
Garcia is good to 27%.
- Time: 11:59 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: One National or Two local
- HR picks: 37-176, -3.65 units
Best home run combo for September 10
| Cody Bellinger |
Trade Now 107.4x |
| Jake Burger |
|
| Luis Garcia |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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