We've got a full slate of 15 games on the MLB betting board on Tuesday, including an AL Central battle between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox.
This is the first contest in a three-game set at Guaranteed Rate Field and oddsmakers are expecting a close one, with the White Sox currently installed as slim -120 home favorites.
Here are our best free Twins vs. White Sox picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 11, with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Twins vs White Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA pegged Chicago a -125 favorite at Monday evening's outset, dipped to -120 by lunch hour today and is at -115 at 5:45 p.m. ET. However, the betting splits belie the moneyline shift, with the White Sox taking 87 percent of tickets and 93 percent of dollars. The total dropped a full run, from 8.5 (Under -120) to 7.5 (Under -115), although ticket count and money are about 2/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameTwins vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.34 ERA): The veteran right-hander is fresh off a strong performance against the Rangers where he allowed two hits and zero runs while striking out eight in 5 1-3 innings of work. The former Dodger threw the ball very well last season in his first year in Minnesota, going 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP across 11 starts.
Dylan Cease (2-0, 2.37 ERA): The 25-year-old is coming off back-to-back dominant starts, pitching 13 scoreless innings and fanning 20 batters while allowing just four hits against the Reds and Tigers. In six starts this season, Cease has pitched to a 1.22 WHIP while holding opponents to a batting average of .208.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Twins: Luis Arraez 2B (Out), Byron Buxton CF (Out), Alex Kirilloff RF (Out).
White Sox: Luis Robert CF (Out), Adam Engels CF (Out), Eloy Jimenez LF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The White Sox are 23-8 in their last 31 games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. White Sox.
Moneyline pick
The Twins are fresh off a 7-3 loss to AL Central cellar-dwellers Detroit on Saturday. They are 1-4 in their last five games to drop to 12-20 on the season. The White Sox are coming off a three-game road sweep over the Royals and lead the division with a 19-13 record.
Chicago has been among the best hitting teams in the majors for the second season in a row, despite missing Silver Slugger winner Eloy Jimenez for the entire season and now having to play without 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up Luis Robert until September as well.
The White Sox are third in the majors with 5.12 runs per game while ranking eighth in OPS at .728. On the other side, Minnesota is ninth in the majors in scoring with 4.69 runs per game and ranks sixth with an OPS of .737.
The White will send young right-hander Dylan Cease to the mound tonight. The former top prospect has struggled with his control in the past but seems to be putting it all together lately, going 13 innings without allowing a run over his last two starts.
Twins starter Kenta Maeda is generally very reliable and is coming off an excellent performance versus the Rangers, but he was rocked in his previous two starts. He closed out April by surrendering 11 runs and six homers in 8 2-3 innings against Cleveland and Oakland.
With the Twins just 2-7 in their last nine games on the road and the White Sox 25-10 in their previous 35 contests at Guaranteed Rate Field, back the home side.
PREDICTION: Chicago White Sox (-120)
Over/Under pick
The Over/Under opened at 8.5 before moving down to 7.5 but there's reason to go against the line movement.
The Twins rank fourth in the majors in slugging percentage (.425) and home runs per game (1.38). They've also been red-hot lately, leading the majors with an OPS of .824 over the last 15 days.
Meanwhile, the White Sox are fourth in the majors with a batting average of .254, while leading the majors with a .319 batting average on balls in play. Their lineup has plenty of depth with rookie Yermin Mercedes breaking out with a .363 batting average and 20 RBI, joining 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu to lead Chicago's potent offense.
While Cease has looked awesome in his last two starts, control still seems to be an issue and he's going to need more consistency before we can really trust him.
Both bullpens have also looked shaky with White Sox relief pitchers posting a 1.30 WHIP and a.245 opponent batting average, while Twins relievers pitch to a 1.38 WHIP with a .249 OBA.
With the Twins going 9-2-1 to the Over in their last 12 games overall, take the Over tonight.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-105)
Twins vs White Sox betting card
- Chicago White Sox ML (-120)
- Over 7.5 (-105)
Picks made on 5/11/2021 at 11:20 a.m. ET
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