It's another short Thursday slate for our MLB expert picks.
Two of our analysts are eyeing lines from the Texas Rangers-Seattle Mariners clash at T-Mobile Field this afternoon, while Josh Inglis is backing the Chicago White Sox to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the nightcap on Thursday, Sept. 10.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CHW ML |
51% |
 Jon Metler: TEX ML |
47% |
 Joe Osborne: TEX/SEA o6.5 |
51% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: White Sox moneyline
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
I got this at 51% and have the fair price closer to 54%.
The Chicago White Sox have already dropped both games of this series, and the threat of a sweep should provide plenty of motivation. There might be some interest in the Pittsburgh Pirates with White Sox rookie Hagen Smith making his first start, but he's been a nasty lefty out of the bullpen this year, with nine scoreless outings in 10 games and 23 Ks over 16 innings.
Jared Jones looks like a pitcher who struggles on visiting mounds, with a 4.0 BB/9 away from home compared to 2.6 at PNC Park. His road WHIP is also half a point higher.
I see this as a 50/50 game on a neutral field, and home-field advantage is worth at least another 2%, or 20 points, to me. The White Sox are fighting to hold onto the AL Central lead, while Pittsburgh has already secured the series and Chicago has one more chance to avoid the brooms.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, CHSN
Jon Metler's expert pick: Rangers moneyline
Price: 47¢ at Polymarket
The Texas Rangers are trading at 47%, and that's a number I'm buying because I price them closer to a 52% favorite. That's a sizable edge compared to what we typically see in this market.
The middle of the Seattle Mariners' lineup, including hitters like Cal Raleigh and Dominic Canzone, features steep uppercut swings designed to elevate the ball.
That's exactly what Jacob deGrom's high-velocity fastball with late riding life at the letters can neutralize, turning those uppercut swings into routine popups or complete whiffs.
The Mariners will try to counter the right-handed deGrom by stacking their lineup with seven left-handed hitters, but that doesn't give them an advantage. DeGrom is equally tough on lefties as he is on righties, thanks to his ability to attack their hands with his fastball and use his back-foot slider to keep them off balance.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: RSN, Mariners.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rangers at Mariners Over 6.5
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
Such a low total isn’t warranted with the 2026 versions of these two starters.
Logan Gilbert owns a 4.45 home ERA and just surrendered seven earned runs and four homers to the A’s, and deGrom has a brutal 5.86 road ERA across 13 starts.
Neither lineup is imposing, but each is in respectable form. Seattle ranks fifth in wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks, while Texas sits second overall over the past week.
Add in two bullpens getting smacked around all September, and getting to seven runs shouldn’t be much of a struggle.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: RSN, Mariners.TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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