The New York Yankees (56-39) are in an absolute freefall, having lost 16 of their last 22 games since mid-June. On Friday night they will open a three-game road set against the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles (57-36), who just got swept by the Cubs while getting shut out in the last two
Which team can bounce back and finish out strong before heading into the All-Star break?
Continue reading for free MLB picks and Yankees vs Orioles predictions matchup on Friday, July 12th.
Yankees vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 strikeouts (-105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The New York Yankees will send out Gerrit Cole in hopes of starting off a three-game road set with the division-leading Baltimore Orioles on the right note in hopes of securing just their second series win since mid-June.
Cole started his season around that time as he nursed an arm injury, and the results have not been great thus far. In 17.1 innings pitched across four appearances thus far, Cole has pitched to a 6.75 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP.
While the sample size is obviously small thus far, Cole has struggled in basically every metric other than his trademark fastball velocity (79th percentile). In almost every other metric you can think of (exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate, etc) he ranks below the 50th percentile in those innings.
And even if Cole was his normal self, he's facing an Orioles lineup that has not fallen for his stuff compared to the rest of the league. Since joining the Yankees he has never posted a season-long strikeout rate of 27.0% (his figure last year), and his next worst mark was 32.4%.
This Baltimore roster across 176 combined plate appearances has struck at at just a 22.2% rate against Cole, and the former Cy Young winner is still ramping up and has pitched five full innings just once this year.
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Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 strikeouts
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 hits
Anthony Santander Under 0.5 hits
One player in particular who has seen the ball well against Cole in their career is Cedric Mullins, who across 27 plate appearances has racked up a .333 batting average. And playing into the favor of his hit props is that Mullins has always been swing-happy against Cole, registering zero walks in his career against Cole.
Conversely, one player who has struggled mightily against Cole is Anthony Santander. Santander has recorded just three hits in 27 plate appearances against Cole and he has struck out seven times across those appearances - a team-high.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Yankees vs Orioles live odds
Yankees vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+140) | Baltimore +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: New York -120 | Baltimore +100
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
Yankees vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore is the MLB's best Overs team on the year thus far at 48-36-9, good for a 57.1% rate. At home, however, the Orioles have gone just 23-20-6 to the Over - good for just a 53.5% rate.
- The Yankees are not too far behind at 50-41-4, good for a fifth-best 55.0% rate. And playing into their favor on the total is that they are a road favorite tonight, a split in which they've gone a league's best 25-10-2 to the Over (71.4%).
- New York has played the third-most games this year as a road favorite, and their 21-16 record in that split is the eighth-best record of any team with 15+ games in that split. The Orioles, however, are 3-1 as a home underdog this year - the best winning percentage of any team in that split with more than just one game played in it.
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 77 games (+12.10 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles
Yankees vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Friday, 7-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (1-1, 6.75 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cade Povich (1-3, 6.51 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
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