If you like potential pitchers' duels, they don't get much better than Saturday's showdown between the New York Yankees and the host Cleveland Indians.
The top two hurlers in the American League will go toe-to-toe at Progressive Field, with the Yankees sending Gerrit Cole to the hill against Indians counterpart Shane Bieber. It's a pivotal game for both teams, with the Yankees looking to extend their winning streak to three games (and continue their climb out of the AL East doldrums) and the Indians seeking to halt a three-game skid.
Yankees vs Indians odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonCleveland opened a slim -109 favorite Friday night at DraftKings, the moneyline flipped to New York -125 by early this morning, and as of 12:45 p.m. ET, the Yankees are -117. The Yanks are attracting 70 percent of moneyline bets and 85 percent of moneyline cash. With two stud pitchers throwing – New York's Gerrit Cole vs. Cleveland's Shane Bieber – the total opened at 6.5 (Over -113) and adjusted to 6.5 (Under -113). The Under is landing 61 percent of bets and 51 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameYankees vs Indians betting preview
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole (2-1, 1.82 ERA): Cole has been as good as advertised through his first four starts of 2021, racking up 39 strikeouts over just 24 1/3 innings while posting quality starts in each of his previous three turns. Cole hasn't faced the Indians since 2019 but was sensational in two starts that season, posting a 1.93 ERA with 14 strikeouts over 14 strong innings.
Shane Bieber (2-1, 2.45 ERA): Bieber has allowed a few more runs than Cole over his first four starts, but he has also been a more effective strikeout artist with an American League-leading 48 over 29 1/3 innings. Bieber has racked up double-digit Ks in each of his first four appearances and is coming off a season-high 13 whiffs against Cincinnati last time out.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: 3B Miguel Andujar (Out), 1B Luke Voit (Out).
Indians: No injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Yankees have won five straight games in Cleveland. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Indians.
Moneyline pick
The Yankees might be favored by virtue of their superior batting lineup, but this honestly feels as close to a pick 'em as they come. Neither pitcher is likely to give an inch, which will leave the fate of this game in the hands of the bullpens.
That's where these teams diverge Saturday. The Yankees own the best bullpen unit in the majors entering the weekend, ranking first in ERA (2.08), first in FIP (2.94), fifth in strikeout rate (10.93/9) and second in walk rate (2.95/9). The Indians have the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA but are 20th in FIP (4.44), 23rd in walk rate (4.55/9) and 20th in home run rate (1.32/9).
With both pitchers capable of extended dominance and neither lineup looking particularly good at the moment, bettors will need to look for whatever edge they can find – and in this game, the bullpen disparity is the key. We recommend the Yankees.
PREDICTION: Yankees (-115)
Over/Under pick
The total for this game is on the extreme low end at 6.5, which isn't surprising when you consider who will be toeing the rubber. Both pitchers have seen their starts trend low: Bieber has had three of his first four starts produce six or fewer total runs, while Cole has also had three of four outings finish with fewer than seven runs scored.
Both teams have also trended heavily toward the Under in the early part of the season, thanks in no small part to the futility of their respective offenses. The Yankees, who are slashing a dismal .210/.304/.350 as a team, have gone 7-12 O/U so far in 2021. The Indians, who boast an equally unimpressive .207/.289/.375 slash line, are 7-11 O/U through their first 18 games.
Expect this one to be a zero-fest for most of the night – and don't shy away from the Under even with the total this low.
PREDICTION: Under 6.5 (-110)
Yankees vs Indians betting card
- Yankees (-115)
- Under 6.5 (-110)
Picks made on 4/24/2021 at 10:45 a.m. ET
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