The schedulers have blessed us with another night of great MLB betting as the San Diego Padres head to Vin Scully Avenue to take on the NL-leading Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Padres have taken the first two games of the four-game set and have now notched three straight wins against the Dodgers, who have scored just nine runs in five games.
Saturday’s showdown will feature a pair of Cy Young winners on new teams as left-hander Blake Snell opposes Trevor Bauer.
Here are our free picks and predictions for San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers for Saturday, April 24.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBetMGM Nevada hasn't budged so much as a penny on the opening price of Los Angeles -145, which is where the moneyline rests at 6:30 p.m. ET. "Money is 2/1 in favor of the Dodgers, tickets also 2/1 in favor of the Dodgers," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. The total opened at 7 (Over -120) and adjusted a few cents to Over -115. "All the money and tickets are on the Under, 5/1 tickets and almost 10/1 money," Shelton said.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePadres vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Blake Snell (0-0, 4.11 ERA): The 2019 AL Cy Young winner’s ERA may look deceiving, but one bad start has ballooned the number. In his other three starts, the lefty has a 2.45 ERA. The walks are a little concerning (10 over 14 2-3 innings) but Snellzilla is still one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.
Trevor Bauer (2-0, 2.42 ERA): Coming off a 2020 Cy Young win, Bauer has started his career as a Dodger with two wins in his first four starts while giving up just 10 hits across 26 innings of work. Bauer Outage has also been making batters miss with 36 punchouts, which is the sixth-most Ks in the league.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Austin Nola C (out), Keon Kela RP (out).
Dodgers: Chris Taylor OF (questionable), Gavin Lux IF (out), Cody Bellinger OF (out), Tommy Kahnle RP (out), Joe Kelly RP (out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Padres’ last five games against a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
Moneyline pick
One night after getting Clayton Kershaw versus Yu Darvish, the baseball gods will give us another amazing matchup as Blake Snell takes on Trevor Bauer.
Snell will face a slumping L.A. offense that is slashing .128/.238/.244 over the last week. It’s never a good thing when your on-base percentage is nearly identical to your slugging percentage. They’re striking out at a 31-percent clip and drawing walks at a rate much lower than their season average. It’s an early ebb for the Los Angeles bats, and we don’t like them to suddenly come to life against one of the best left-handers in the game in Snell.
Snell last faced this same line-up six days ago and came away with a no-decision despite allowing just two hits (two runs) over five solid innings while striking out seven. The Dodgers have a league-average line-up against lefties (.748 OPS) and will likely see at least five innings of the southpaw. After that, the home team will face a San Diego bullpen that leads the league in xFIP by a wide margin and owns a 2.71 ERA.
Bauer opposed Snell last Sunday and also walked away with a no-decision. It’s hard to find holes in a pitcher who has a 0.68 WHIP, but if the Padres can hang around and keep things close, they know they can hang runs on the Dodgers’ bullpen. Over the last three meetings, the Friars have scored eight runs in the seventh inning or later against the L.A. relievers.
We won’t be taking any dives on the Dodgers ML at -147 and find value in the road dog at +125.
PREDICTION: San Diego ML (+125)
Over/Under pick
Over the last week, the Dodgers and Padres sit 15th and 13th, respectively, in the NL for wRC+ and are both dead last in average. Despite how good these teams are on paper, the runs have not come easy of late and now each team has to face elite-level pitching on Saturday night.
Combined, Snell and Bauer have pitched a total of 41 1-3 innings this season and have surrendered just 21 total hits. Both teams will likely have to get on the board via the long ball as stringing hits together against these two Cy Young winners is no easy task. Crooked numbers will be hard to hang for either offense.
The Over 6.5 hit last night but needed a three-run inning in the ninth frame to do so. On the season, the Under is 3-2 in the five matchups with both Overs benefiting from some late-inning offense. If you’re into live-game middling, this could be a great game to hit the Over if both starters are cruising and you’re holding onto an Under 7 ticket.
Call us old-fashioned, but we are just going to stick with the full-game Under 7 at even money in what will surely be another great pitching matchup against two struggling offenses.
PREDICTION: Under 7 (+100)
Padres vs Dodgers betting card
- San Diego ML (+125)
- Under 7 (+100)
Picks made on 4/24/2021 at 6:05 a.m. ET
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