The New York Yankees have come back to win both of their first two games against the Houston Astros to open up the season. Tonight, they will go for the series win on Saturday behind their new arm Marcus Stroman.
Are the Astros ready to steady the ship in the MLB odds, or are there real concerns mounting for the fading dynasty?
Let's dive right into it with our in-depth MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Astros on Saturday, March 30
Yankees vs Astros odds
Yankees vs Astros predictions
The Houston Astros simply aren’t quite as potent offensively as they may seem on the surface. They’ve been desperately clinging to life over the past two years, more or less staying above average as they deal with the continued aging of their most important players.
Houston’s excellent last year came in turning contact into hits, limiting the strikeouts, and, in turn, getting more traffic on the basepaths for their big boppers in Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. This will be an utterly interesting matchup against a ground ball pitcher in Marcus Stroman, who was a bit pickier with how he threw his pitches, walking an alarming 9% of hitters last season, but a guy who was ultimately able to pitch to contact on the ground and get outs behind a strong infield defense from the Cubs.
The New York Yankees, with a comparable defense to the one he enjoyed in Chicago, should be able to successfully help Stroman navigate this lineup. On the other hand, young Hunter Brown will carry some poor peripherals into a matchup with a Yankees offense that looks a lot better than it did a year ago.
New York, as one of the most patient teams in the league, should manage to draw plenty of walks against Brown, who struggled in that department a season ago. He also had one of the worst barrel rates of all starters at 10.9%, two things you do not want when facing a team that lives and dies with the long ball.
The Ks could be there for Brown, but I don’t have much faith in him making this a clean game with the walks and barrels we saw a season ago. Together with a struggling and taxed bullpen, this should be yet another win for the Yankees.
My best bet: Yankees moneyline (+115 at Caesars)
Yankees vs Astros same-game parlay
Yankees moneyline
Austin Wells to record a hit
Anthony Volpe to record a hit
Parlayed with my best bet, I’ll be banking on two of the Yanks' young prospects to pick up hits against Brown, who pitched to a generous .240 expected batting average a season ago.
The first is catcher Austin Wells who, for whatever reason, isn’t being priced quite accurately in my estimation. Perhaps it’s the timeshare with Jose Trevino — one which should see Wells start against most righties.
The youngster's success at the major-league level has been fleeting with a .230 batting average, but in just a 74-at-bat sample, it’s hard to read much into it. Wells has hit his whole life; he was a .260 hitter with power in the minors after hitting .357 in college, and he is coming off of a spring where he hit .300.
I also believe Anthony Volpe has taken a step forward at 23 years of age. Sure, it’s early, but the plate discipline has been noticeably better in 2024, dating back to the start of his spring training campaign where he hit .314. It’s a good matchup against Brown, and the only thing that derails this is Volpe’s incredible patience at the dish.
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Yankees vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Houston opened up around a -124 favorite and was immediately bet down to -135 in the span of hours, where it sits now.
- At DraftKings, just 46% of the bets and 44% of the handle are on the Astros to win.
- Also at DK, 45% of bettors are backing the Over, with 53% of the total handle leaning that way as well.
- The Yankees have been listed as betting dogs in all three games to start the 2024 season.
Trend to know
The Yankees have covered the run line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros
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Yankees vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, March 30, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The veteran right-hander will be making his first start with the Yankees following what was considered a step back with the Cubs. He finished his age-32 season with a 3.95 ERA and an even more unsightly 4.27 xERA, but he still possesses one of the strongest ground ball rates in the game and should return to form if he can limit walks.
Hunter Brown (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The righty was highly heralded ahead of his first big-league season, but he fell short of expectations with a poor 5.09 ERA. Sure, he didn’t turn out to start as fast with Houston as Cristian Javier, but by the end of the season, Brown finished with a 4.27 xERA and an above-average 26.8% strikeout rate. Getting outs via contact and limiting walks are the two areas he needs to improve.
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