At what point does a Cinderella run end? Is it only when a team loses, or does a Cinderella run end when the Cinderella becomes favored?
The Miami Hurricanes have sprung two upsets already in the College Football Playoff, but they are now favored against the Mississippi Rebels in the first semifinal.
My Miami vs. Mississippi predictions and college football picks lean heavily on Cinderella, even if Cinderella is now favored.
Kickoff comes at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 8.
Miami vs Mississippi predictions for the Fiesta Bowl
Who will win the Fiesta Bowl?
The thought of Miami reaching the national championship game after its questionable inclusion in the College Football Playoff should make Notre Dame fans and BYU fans livid. Yet, here we are.
The Hurricanes’ defense is distinctly the best unit in this game, and it is playing at its best of the season. Meanwhile, the Rebels’ offense is losing assistants with each round of the Playoff, courtesy of former head coach Lane Kiffin.
That matchup should dictate this game, lending itself to a Miami win and a continued Cinderella-ish run.
Miami vs Mississippi best bet: Miami -3.5 (-102)
Mississippi may have the best offensive line that Miami has faced yet in the Playoff, but with how defensive ends Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are playing, that should not matter.
Furthermore, Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is less of a scramble threat than Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed and less adept at getting rid of the ball under pressure than Ohio State’s Julian Sayin.
Expect the Miami Hurricanes’ defensive front to make Chambliss look like a Division II quarterback while Miami’s offense enjoys facing the worst defense it has seen in the CFP.
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Miami vs Mississippi same-game parlay
Miami's offense might not look outright good in this matchup, but it should look better than it has yet in the Playoff. This is the worst defense it has faced thus far. Furthermore, shortening the game with a heavy dosage of Mark Fletcher Jr. will only help the Hurricanes' defensive front.
Miami vs Mississippi SGP
- Miami -3.5
- Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 88.5 rushing yards
- Malachi Toney anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Leave 'em in a cloud of dust
Any Miami faith should also go hand in hand with the Under. Handing off to Mark Fletcher Jr. will help keep Mississippi quarterback Trinidad Chambliss off the field; it will also keep the Hurricanes' defensive line more aggressive.
Miami vs Mississippi SGP
- Miami -3.5
- Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 88.5 Rushing Yards
- Malachi Toney Touchdown
- Under 51.5
Miami vs Mississippi odds
- Spread: Miami -3.5 | Mississippi +3.5
- Moneyline: Miami -164 | Mississippi +138
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Miami vs Mississippi trend to know
Miami is 2-0 against the spread this season as a one-score favorite and 4-1 ATS as a one-score favorite in the last three seasons. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs Mississippi.
How to watch Miami vs Mississippi
| Location | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date | Thursday, January 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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