The Los Angeles Chargers venture far and wide for Wild Card Weekend, making their way to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots on Sunday, January 11.
New England secured the No. 2 seed and has a significant home edge over its California competition, forcing L.A. to play in some winter conditions in the postseason opener.
My early Chargers vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks think the weather advantage will help propel the home side to a convincing win.
Chargers vs Patriots predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Chargers vs Patriots spread pick: Patriots -3.5
Some books opened as short as Patriots -3, and that field goal spread lasted merely minutes before action on New England tacked on a half-point hook.
As of Monday morning, most shops are dealing that line with jumps in juice for the favorite, which could point to further movement.
There were some Patriots -4 spreads on Sunday night, but the industry consensus is an expensive -3.5, with vig up to -115. Any further support for the host Patriots will knock this up to the underrated key number of -4. If you like New England, either avoid the spread or opt for the moneyline.
As mentioned, Gillette Stadium gives the host a solid edge on Sunday night. The extended forecast for Foxborough calls for sub-freezing temperatures and stiffer winds, adding to the chilly elements.
If you’re looking at Los Angeles, wait this out and see if the spread does hit +4. That’s been somewhat of a “no-man’s land” for favorites, with chalk of -4 winning outright at a 58% clip but covering the spread just 42% of the time since 2020.
Early Chargers vs Patriots total pick: Under 46.5
The cold conditions don’t help put points on the board, but we also have two solid defenses going to work in the Wild Card Round.
Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes have bottled up passing attacks and kept explosive plays at bay, with the Bolts giving up the second fewest receptions of 20 yards or more on the season.
That could dull the Patriots’ downfield plans, with QB Drake Maye leading the league's second-most “explosive” air assault.
As for New England, it also does a great job holding rival QBs in check. The Patriots rank Top 10 in EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per dropback, while giving up the eighth fewest receptions of 20+ yards.
The Pats' biggest weakness has been the run-stop unit in the second half of the schedule. New England was very stout against the rush to start 2025, but the injury to NT Khyiris Tonga left a huge gap in the interior. His status for Sunday is an undervalued injury to monitor.
With both passing games shortened and neither team wanting to press for fear of turnovers, I see both offenses attacking on the ground. That keeps gains shorter and the clock ticking, which is a perfect recipe for Unders.
This total opened as high as 47.5 and has slimmed to 46.5 O/U across the market, with some shops already down to 45.5 points.
Chargers vs Patriots odds
- Chargers vs. Patriots spread: Patriots -3.5
- Chargers vs. Patriots moneyline: Chargers +168, Patriots -200
- Chargers vs. Patriots Over/Under: 46.5
How to watch Chargers vs Patriots
- Chargers vs. Patriots matchup
- Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Foxborough, MA
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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