The Pittsburgh Steelers pulled off the victory on Sunday Night Football over the Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North and earn the privilege of hosting the Houston Texans at Acrisure Stadium to wrap up the Wild Card Round on Monday, January 12.
Pittsburgh is a home underdog, and my early Texans vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks call for Houston to advance to the AFC Divisional Round for a third consecutive year with a statement win.
Texans vs Steelers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Texans vs Steelers spread pick: Texans -3.5
The Houston Texans take a nine-game winning streak into the postseason and finished with the second-best scoring defense in the NFL, in addition to ranking second in both defensive DVOA and EPA per play allowed.
This unit is going to give the Pittsburgh Steelers and veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers all kinds of trouble, and I’m also confident Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud can move the football against the Pittsburgh defense.
Stroud rounded out the regular season ranked 10th in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for the seventh-most air yards and a respectable 7.4 yards per attempt across the final six weeks of the regular season.
And, for comparison, Rodgers checked in with respective ranks of 19th and 20th while throwing for 6.5 YPA during the same stretch.
Plus, the Steelers haven’t topped a postseason-bound team since beating the Patriots in Week 3, and Rodgers threw for a pedestrian 139 yards while Pittsburgh gave up 166 more total yards.
Early Texans vs Steelers total pick: Over 39.5
In addition to Stroud’s highlighted strong play, the Texans also put up 26.2 points per game during their nine-game winning streak, and I think there’s a lot of smoke and mirrors in the Pittsburgh defense.
The Steelers allowed the 17th-most points per game (22.8) while ranking 19th in EPA and 21st in yards per play allowed.
Plus, Pittsburgh has struggled against quality opponents and allowed 29.3 per game across four consecutive losses to postseason-bound teams. Houston is going to put points on the board.
It’s the Houston defense keeping this total so low, and while I’m expecting the Texans to show off on that side of the ball, the Steelers will do just enough to help this total go Over the number.
Texans vs Steelers odds
- Texans vs. Steelers spread: Steelers +3.5
- Texans vs. Steelers moneyline: Texans -180, Steelers +150
- Texans vs. Steelers Over/Under: 39.5
How to watch Texans vs Steelers
- Texans vs. Steelers matchup
- Date: Monday, January 12, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Pittsburgh, PA
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: ESPN/ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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