Last season's ALCS combatants square off for their second series in as many weeks when the Texas Rangers meet the Houston Astros for Game 1 of a three-game series.
Texas probable starter Dane Dunning and the Rangers are the MLB odds underdog, while Houston expects right-hander J.P. France on the hill for the Astros.
Can the Rangers pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks and Rangers vs. Astros predictions on Friday, April 12.
Rangers vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Rangers F5 moneyline (+112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Texas Rangers might be the away team for this series, but they are comfortable playing at Minute Maid Park. The Rangers have won their past five in Space City and have a great opportunity to make it six straight tonight when they face Houston Astros starter J.P. France.
France is making his second start against Texas in less than a week. He scattered eight hits with four earned runs in a Saturday loss at Texas, and the fastball/junkball pitcher with a high flyball rate will likely suffer the same fate here.
This is because Texas hits pitchers like France hard. Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia smash four-seamers, with above-average hard-hit rates against the heater. Evan Carter and Seager are extremely comfortable against his off-speed stuff, and that will make it difficult for France to get through this lineup unscathed.
This Texas lineup slashes .328/.394/.531 with 21 hits and nine RBI across 64 at-bats against the Houston starter. The Rangers are a patient offense with a low strikeout rate. The free outs won’t be there, and France’s four-seamer will be tested early as the top of the Rangers order smashes four-seam fastballs and cutters.
Texas starter Dane Dunning toes the slab for the second time this week against Houston. His sinker-slider-cutter trinity has been solid — Astros righties haven’t hit the sinker at all this season, and left-handed hitters like Kyle Tucker have struggled with the cutter.
Texas has won five straight at Minute Maid Park, and Dunning will beat Houston through the first five.
Rangers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Rangers F5 moneyline
Adolis Garcia 1+ hit
Over 9.5
Adolis Garcia is raking. The Rangers RF is slashing .294/.339/.588/.928 and has hit safely in 11 of his 13 games this season.
The Over is 7-2-1 over their last 10 matchups, and these offenses really get after it when they meet for their annual Silver Boot Series. Both bullpens have underperformed with heavy usage across their past three games. That should lead to both starters pitching deeper into this matchup and a high-scoring affair.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Astros odds
Rangers vs Astros live odds
Rangers vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 | Houston -1.5
- Moneyline: Texas +118 | Houston -138
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Rangers vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tonight’s bullpens have been leaky with 45 combined earned runs allowed.
- The Rangers are 14-2 in their last 16 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
- The Astros have hit the Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI).
Rangers vs Astros trend
The Rangers have hit the F5 moneyline in 93 of their last 167 games (+27.18 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros
Rangers vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, 4-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest, Space City Home Network |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Dane Dunning (1-1, 4.15 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | J.P. France (0-1, 4.76 ERA) |
Rangers vs Astros latest injuries
Rangers vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
