The MLB betting board has a full slate of 15 games this Sunday, with plenty of MLB prop and side betting options to wager on as wild card and divisional races heat up.
Today we check out a Cy Young candidate that books may be too bullish on, back a red-hot slugger for a surging squad in the NL Wild Card race, and fade a starter that might not be anywhere near as good as his early-season numbers suggested.
Here are our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Sunday, September 19.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Gerrit Cole Under 9.5 strikeouts (-120 at bet365)
Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in the world and ranks second in the majors with 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings. That said, the Over/Under of 9.5 on his strikeouts total tonight seems a tad steep.
Despite his fireballing ways, Cole has hit the double-digit strikeout mark just once in his last six starts. Going back even further, he has eclipsed 9.5 strikeouts in just four of his previous 19 starts going all the way back to the middle of May.
Today Cole and the Yankees face off against Cleveland and while the Tribe aren't great at the dish, they also aren't prone to fanning, ranking 13th in the majors in strikeouts per game. Fade this superstar on a number that simply seems too high.
Tyler O'Neill Over 0.5 RBI (+140 at DraftKings)
St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Tyler O'Neill was the hero last night, when his three-run homer in the eighth inning led St. Louis to a 3-2 win over the Padres. The 26-year-old is enjoying a breakout season and has been a huge boost for the Cardinals in their late-season wild card push.
O'Neill is slashing .360/.418/.780 with six dingers and 13 RBI in 13 games over the last two weeks. This afternoon, O'Neill and the Cards will be hosting the Padres and starter Jake Arrieta — who has been among the worst pitchers in the majors in 2021, going 5-13 with a 7.05 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and an opponent batting average of .319.
With O'Neill driving in at least two runs in four straight games, take the Over 0.5 on his RBI total.
Kyle Gibson Over 2.5 earned runs (+105 at BetMGM)
The Phillies and Mets face off in the Sunday nighter and Philadelphia will have right-hander Kyle Gibson toeing the rubber. There was a time this season when Gibson was considered a Cy Young candidate... But that was when he was pitching with the Rangers.
Gibson has hit a wall lately, which really shouldn't be too surprising when you consider the rest of his career. In his last three starts, the 33-year-old has surrendered 15 runs in 15 innings — and that was against brutal offensive teams like the Cubs and Marlins.
When you break down Gibson's numbers this year you find that the vast majority of his success this season came at Globe Life Field in Arlington. At the Rangers' home park, he pitched to a sizzling 1.77 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP across 56 innings — and in his other 109 innings, he has pitched to a mediocre 4.38 ERA with a WHIP of 1.36.
The Mets had been struggling at the plate for much of the year but they've really turned things on lately. Over their last 16 contests, the Mets are plating an impressive 5.5 runs per game while ranking among the Top-10 teams in the majors in OPS.
With Gibson and the Mets lineup on opposite trajectories, take the Over on Gibson's earned runs allowed.
MLB betting card for September 19
- Gerrit Cole Under 9.5 strikeouts (-120 at Bet365)
- Tyler O'Neill Over 0.5 RBI (+140 at DraftKings)
- Kyle Gibson Over 2.5 earned runs (+105 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 9/19/2021 at 9:22 a.m. ET
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