Phillies vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Struggling Gibson Gives Desperate NY Value on SNF

The Mets have lost five straight and are trying to avoid being swept by the Phillies — and cling to their slim playoff hopes. New York has a pitching advantage tonight, however, and combined with that desperation has us leaning with the Big Apple tonight.

Last Updated: Sep 19, 2021 12:39 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Javier Baez New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies try to close the gap in the NL East — and possibly put a nail in the coffin of the New York Mets season — as they wrap up a three-game series against the Mets on Sunday night.

New York lost the first two games in this set but MLB betting lines opened with it as a slim -120 favorite for the finale.

Here are our best free Phillies vs. Mets picks and predictions for Sunday, September 19, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET.  

Phillies vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, New York, NY
Date: Sunday, September 19, 2021
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Phillies vs Mets odds

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Phillies vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kyle Gibson (10-7, 3.49 ERA): Gibson began this season looking like a Cy Young candidate for the Rangers but has since cooled off. In nine games since being acquired by the Phillies, the right-hander is 4-4 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He's fresh off a loss against the Cubs where he allowed four runs and a pair of dingers through five innings of work. 

Rich Hill (6-7, 3.88 ERA): The 41-year-old continues to be a productive starter, pitching to a 1.18 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .234 in 144 innings with both Tampa Bay and New York this season. In three starts this month, Hill has scattered 14 hits and allowed four runs across 17 innings.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Phillies: Rhys Hoskins 1B (Out)
Mets: None to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 5-2 in their last seven games as home favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.

Moneyline pick

The Phillies are just one game behind the Braves in the NL East and are 2.5 games outside of the final Wild Card spot. After last night's win, they have won four in a row and will try to sweep the Mets, who are on a five-game losing streak.

New York is seeing its slim hope of a postseason berth disappear, but the Mets are slim favorites tonight. Although they struggled at the plate for most of the season, they have turned things around lately and are ninth in the majors with an OPS of .774 while plating 5.41 runs per game during the month of September.

Both of those numbers are marginally better than the Phillies, who have posted an OPS of .760 with 5.06 runs per game over the same time span. 

The biggest difference could come on the mound, with the Phillies sending struggling Kyle Gibson to the mound. The right-hander has allowed 15 runs in 15 innings over his last three starts, despite two of those matchups coming against brutal offenses in the Cubs and Marlins. 

The Mets counter with Rich Hill, who has a 2.12 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP in three starts this month. Back the Mets to end this series with a victory at home. 

PREDICTION: Mets (-120)

Over/Under pick

As good as Gibson seemed earlier in the season, it's worth mentioning that the vast majority of his success happened at his old home park in Arlington. At Globe Life Field he pitched to a sizzling 1.77 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP across 56 innings. In his other 109 innings, he has a mediocre 4.38 ERA with a WHIP of 1.36.

The Phillies bullpen has also been unreliable, ranking among the Bottom-6 clubs in the majors when it comes to ERA (4.74), WHIP (1.40), and opponent batting average (.251).

That's good news for a Mets lineup that is really taking off lately. Midseason acquisition Javier Baez has led the way, slashing .426/.508/.759 over the last 15 days — with the Mets plating 5.23 runs per game over that span. 

That said, the Phillies are no slouches at the dish themselves, averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 30 days. And while Hill has pitched well this season he's not exactly a world-beater.

With the Over going 6-2-1 in the last nine home games for the Mets back it again.

PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-105)

Phillies vs Mets betting card

  • Mets ML (-120)
  • Over 8.5 (-105)

Picks made on 9/19/2021 at 12:15 p.m. ET

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