The season is coming down to the wire, but our baseball analysts are still scouring for value in our MLB expert picks for Thursday, Sept. 24.
We kick the slate off with a bullish buy on the Chicago Cubs against the Miami Marlins and wrap up with the San Diego Padres stealing one from the Los Angeles Dodgers with more on the line than the home team.
Those and everything in between with today's MLB picks.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CIN/ATL o7.5 |
52% |
 Jon Metler: SD ML |
38% |
 Neil Parker: CHC -1.5 |
46% |
 Dustin Saracini: CLE ML |
44% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Reds vs. Braves Over 7.5
Price: 52¢ at Polymarket
A game featuring Tyler Mahle and Brady Singer with a total of 7.5 — no wonder THE BAT has it as the best expected ROI total of the day at 18%, with a fair probability of 63%.
Singer might be the worst pitcher in baseball right now, with a 7.53 ERA in the second half and 48 runs allowed in 57 innings across 11 starts. He's allowed three or more runs in each of those 11 games and has been even worse over his last four, giving up 25 runs across 16 innings. He can contribute 90% of this total himself.
Mahle is at 144 innings this year after logging just 125 combined innings over his previous three seasons. His BABIP and LOB% are also showing signs of negative regression. THE BAT is projecting 9.65 runs today in Atlanta.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: FS1
Jon Metler's expert pick: Padres moneyline
Price: 38¢ at Polymarket
I'll back the San Diego Padres at 38%, as I price them closer to a 44% underdog against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The biggest factor for me is the difference in urgency between these two teams. The Dodgers have already clinched a bye and can afford to prioritize postseason preparation over winning this particular game. Tyler Glasnow is a key piece of their potential World Series run, but given his history of durability issues, I don't expect Dave Roberts to push his pitch count tonight.
The Padres, meanwhile, are in a three-way battle for positioning in the Wild Card round and have much more incentive to treat this game like a must-win. I expect San Diego to deploy its high-leverage relievers aggressively and play with urgency, creating an edge at the current 38% price.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Padres.TV, SportsNet LA
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs -1.5
Price: 46¢ at Polymarket
The Chicago Cubs aren’t dropping three straight to the Miami Marlins, and I recommend the run line to 50%.
Miami ranks 22nd in wOBA and 24th in ISO against lefties for the season, and Chicago starter Matthew Boyd has been reliable down the stretch with a respectable 3.72 xERA and 3.77 xFIP.
The Marlins are also 25th in xwOBA with the sixth-highest BABIP over the past 30 days, so Boyd can navigate the Miami lineup as the wind blows briskly at Wrigley Field.
Finally, I expect the Cubs to plate enough runs to cover the number, as they pace the majors in wOBA while ranking second in xwOBA over the past 30 days.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Marlins.TV, Marquee
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Guardians moneyline
Price: 44¢ at Polymarket
The Cleveland Guardians are live underdogs against Ranger Suarez and the Boston Red Sox today, and I'd play this up to 48%.
The last time these two squared off, the Guardians tagged Suarez for four runs on eight hits. This lineup owns a .284 xBA against him across 44 at-bats, which includes Jose Ramirez, who's 5-for-8 versus the lefty.
Joey Cantillo goes for the Guardians, and he's in a groove lately, not allowing a run in 10 straight innings.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Guardians.TV, NESN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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