It’s an interesting day in the MLB betting world: Moves are coming in fast and furious as the MLB trade deadline quickly approaches and it is mostly a getaway day as only five of today’s 12 contests are night games.
Outside of trades, the best story going has to be the Cincinnati Reds' Joey Votto. The 37-year-old has home runs in five straight games, so what’s the prop to play on him today? And do we dare back a team with just 11 road wins?
We break down those games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Thursday, July 29.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Joey Votto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
We are undoubtedly jumping on the Joey Votto hot streak too late but since the baseball must look like the size of a grapefruit to the Cincinnati Reds slugger right now, we don’t care. Votto will look to stay hot as the Reds close out their series with the Chicago Cubs.
Since coming out of the All-Star break, Votto is hitting .372 with a 1.468 OPS, eight home runs, and 16 RBIs. And his last five games have been absolutely absurd. Votto has seven hits in his last five games — and all seven are dingers.
Today, he faces Cubs starter Alec Mills, who has been solid, if unspectacular, since taking a regular turn in the Cubs rotation, pitching to a 3.48 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in seven starts. But he’s allowing opponents to hit .265 and he ranks near the bottom of the league in expected batting average and whiff percentage.
It’s pretty unlikely Votto goes deep for a sixth straight game but we’re betting he at least stays hot and goes over his total bases prop.
Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350)
It has been a bit of a slow month of July for Blue Jays slugger Teoscar Hernandez in terms of dingers, as the Jays' outfielder has hit only four long balls in the month of July despite hitting for a decent .275 average.
But he is a good bet to change that when the Jays close out their series with the Boston Red Sox tonight.
Hernandez will go up against Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez. The lefty has had his highs and lows this season but is pitching to a 5.23 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and is allowing opponents to hit .277 off him this season. Hernandez, in particular, has punished Rodriguez, going 7 for 17(.412) in his career against the southpaw... including three home runs.
With the wind also blowing out over the Green Monster at Fenway Park tonight, Hernandez is due to take one out of the yard.
Rockies +0.5 Five-Inning RL (+135)
The Colorado Rockies have gone 2-4 during their current road trip, which is pretty great by their standards, considering they are just 11-38 when playing away from home this season. But the tough opponents keep coming as the Rockies now travel to San Diego to begin a four-game weekend set against the Padres.
There are a lot of reasons why the Rockies have struggled so much on the road, but the biggest reason has been their bats basically disappear when they aren’t at Coors Field. They score just 3.12 runs per game while hitting .202 with a .606 OPS — all dead last in the MLB... and by a fairly wide margin.
But as noted, they have won two of their last six road games and have scored seven or more runs in three of those games. On top of that, they actually took two of the last three games they played at Petco Park. Is this bizarro world?
Today, they face the Padres’ Joe Musgrove, who has been solid this season but is in a bit of a slump at the moment. The right-hander has a 6.29 ERA and is allowing opponents to hit .300 over his last five starts. Musgrove’s strikeouts are also way down, as he has a K rate of 7.4 over those five games, compared to 10.9 for the rest of the season.
Countering Musgrove is Kyle Freeland, and the Rockies’ lefty is starting to look like the good version of himself once again. Freeland owns a 2.09 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over his last six starts. While the Padres have a good lineup they rank 20th in batting average and 21st in OPS versus southpaws.
Call me crazy but this value with the Rockies is too good to pass up. Bet them to at least keep this close through five innings.
MLB betting card for July 29
- Joey Votto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
- Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350)
- Rockies +0.5 Five-Inning Runline (+135)
Picks made on 7/29/2021 at 11:40 a.m. ET
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