The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will play the fourth game of a four-game set today after the two teams split a doubleheader yesterday.
The Red Sox have had their way with the AL East foes, winning eight of the last 11 matchups but now face Jays’ ace Hyun Jin Ryu in the finale.
Boston opened as a slight -115 MLB betting favorite with the total sitting at 10 and leaning to the Over.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox for Thursday, July 29, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Thursday, July 29, 2021
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, Rogers Sportsnet
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Hyun Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.44 ERA): The Toronto ace is coming off a start where he allowed 10 hits in four-plus innings. What separates Ryu from other pitchers is his ability to bounce back after mediocre starts — he allowed just three runs. His road/home splits are nearly identical and he owns a 2.09 ERA in his nine wins this year. He has seen Boston twice this season and has surrendered four runs on 12 hits over 12 innings and has posted nine strikeouts and zero walks.
Eduardo Rodriguez (7-5, 5.23 ERA): Rodriguez was lifted after just one inning in his most recent start — last Friday — with migraines. Boston manager Alex Cora said the team will proceed cautiously with the starter, but here he is starting less than a week later. The lefty has either been great or awful through 19 starts this year and has allowed three or more runs in 12 of his 19 starts this season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Blue Jays: Danny Jansen C (Out), Lourdes Gurriel Jr, OF (Questionable).
Red Sox: Rafael Devers 3B (Questionable), Danny Santana OF (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 8-0 in Blue Jays’ last eight games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
Thursday will mark the third meeting in two days as the Red Sox and Jays got down with a double-header yesterday after Tuesday's game was postponed due to rain. Both teams picked up a 4-1 victory Wednesday after the Red Sox won the series opener 5-4 on Monday.
The Jays have the advantage on the mound with Hyun Jin Ryu getting the start. He has seen plenty of the Red Sox but owns a 3.00 ERA in his career against Boston and has given up just one home run over 14 innings in Fenway.
The Red Sox could be without star 3B Rafael Devers, who has been as hot as can be in the second half. He is slashing .385/.393./808 over the last seven days and has launched nine home runs in his last 107 at-bats. He had two hits in each game of the series and his potential loss would be a massive boost for the Jays, who need this win badly to climb back in the Wild Card race.
The Jays are 12-7 SU in Ryu’s 19 starts this year and this outing comes at a great time as the Jays’ usually potent offense has failed to score more than four runs in its last four games. It’s only a matter of time before they get going again, however, and facing Eduardo Rodriguez — who the Jays have scored seven runs off of across 11 innings this year — should help.
Toronto is seventh in the league in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching with the sixth-best OPS. With a ton of question marks surrounding Rodriguez after leaving his last start with migraines, we’re hitting the underdogs.
PREDICTION: Toronto (-105)
Over/Under pick
Likely missing Devers is a big blow to the Boston offense and Over backers. The Under is a perfect 3-0 in the series while the Sox are riding a seven-game Under streak. Away from Buffalo, the Jays have also failed to put up big numbers as the Under is 6-1 in Toronto’s last seven road games.
Yesterday, both teams went a combined 5 for 31 with runners in scoring position as the Sox struggled heavily to come up with a big hit and finished a combined 2 for 18 with RISP in the doubleheader.
The temperature will be around 69 degrees at game time, with low-to-mid humidity and a small chance of rain. There will be a big wind (13 mph) blowing out to left field but Ryu is a ground-ball, off-speed pitcher who has given up just two long balls in his last five starts, while Rodriguez has surrendered just three homers over his last seven turns.
The Jays need this game and Thursday’s meeting should have some intensity between the two division rivals. A total of 10 seems a little high for us, but is understandable with the wind.
Either way, we’re sticking with the series trend and banging the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 10 (-105)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting card
- Toronto ML (-105)
- Under 10 (-105)
Picks made on 7/29/2021 at 5:09 a.m. ET
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