Braves vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Don't Expect Many Runs Today

Offense has not been prevalent through the first four games of this Braves-Mets divisional matchup — and with Drew Smyly facing off against Taijuan Walker, we're not expecting many runs to be scored in today's rubber match either.

Zachary Cohen
Posted: Jul 29, 2021 8:25 AM ET Updated: Jul 29, 2021 8:25 AM ET Est Time: 4 min
Drew Smyly Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves at a rare mid-day 12:10 p.m. ET start for the finale of an even-rarer five-game series!

Atlanta is sending veteran southpaw to the mound, while the Mets are countering with an All-Star that's losing some of his shine. Despite sending out a struggling starter, New York is still a sizeable MLB betting home favorite for this fifth divisional clash.

Will New York come away with a win in the rubber match against Atlanta? Get our take in our Braves vs. Mets MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, July 29.

Braves vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Date: Thursday, July 29, 2021
Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, Bally Sports South

Braves vs Mets odds

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Braves vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Drew Smyly (7-3, 4.30 ERA): Smyly is not going to dominate anybody but he has been extremely reliable for the Braves as of late. The lefty has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past nine starts — and Atlanta has come away with wins in seven of those games. Smyly is giving his team a chance to go out there and earn victories, and he’ll look to do the same today.

Taijuan Walker (7-4, 3.43 ERA): Walker has been a revelation for the Mets this year, but the righty is starting to unravel a bit lately. Walker has allowed a total of 11 earned runs over his last two starts, including not being able to get out of the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Fortunately for New York, Walker has given up no earned runs in eight innings of work against the Braves this year.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out), Travis d’Arnaud C (Out).
Mets: Francisco Lindor SS (Out), Dellin Betances RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 1-6 in their last seven games against left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.

Moneyline pick

Smyly doesn’t have overpowering stuff or anything, so it is almost surprising when you watch him limit damage when he’s on the mound. However, the lefty has been extremely effective for Atlanta as of late, and there’s a good chance he’ll keep it rolling against New York this afternoon.

The Mets players have a combined 52 career at-bats against Smyly, yet the team has only gotten 12 hits off of the lefty — a .231 batting average. The only player that has really given him trouble is catcher James McCann, who is 5 for 9 with two homers and four RBIs against him. Assuming McCann doesn't tee off today, the Braves are shaping up to be a very live dog this afternoon.

While Atlanta’s offense surely misses Ronald Acuna Jr., it helps that Walker hasn’t had his best stuff coming into this game. Plus, Joc Pederson (Acuna's replacement) is 8 for 20 with three extra-base hits and three RBIs against Walker in his career, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he came up big for the Braves in this game.

PREDICTION: Braves (+128)

Over/Under pick

Smyly isn't an ace, and Walker hasn't exactly been pitching like an ace recently, but both have been trustworthy members of their team's rotation. Facing off against one another, both pitchers should be able to turn in solid outings here.

Neither of these lineups had been tearing the cover off the ball in this series, as three of the games finished with three total runs or fewer. Tuesday's game was a 12-5 outburst, but that was clearly an outlier as the Under has cashed in seven of New York's last nine games and seven of Atlanta's last 10.

This is a prime matchup for each of these starters, so let's bet on another low-scoring game.

PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-110)

Braves vs Mets betting card

  • Braves ML (+128)
  • Under 8.5 (-110)

Picks made on 7/28/2021 at 11:46 a.m. ET

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