The New York Yankees are heavy -170 favorites in the first leg of today's doubleheader.
Facing off against a struggling Mitch Keller, they're in a great spot to pile up the runs in a high-scoring victory.
Let's break it all down with my Pirates vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 22.
Who will win Pirates vs Yankees today: New York Yankees (-170)
Mitch Keller owns a 6.0 ERA over the last month, and his 6.47 xERA suggests that is deserved.
He is giving up a ton of hard contact, fly balls, and struggling to keep it in the park. Keller has conceded 2.57 homers per nine innings during that stretch.
The New York Yankees rank eighth in homers and seventh in ISO against righties in July. They are not a team Keller wants to see, especially at Yankee Stadium.
Gerrit Cole should get all the run support he needs as he works to find his footing.
Play to -185.
COVERS INTEL: Keller's contact profile is alarmingly bad, resulting in a fourth percentile ranking in xBA.
Pirates vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+100)
Keller has not held up against quality offenses. He owns an abysmal 8.72 ERA and has allowed at least three runs in eight of nine starts when facing teams that slot Top-11 in OPS vs. right-handed pitching.
The Yankees fit the criteria, and the power boost they’ll see playing at Yankee Stadium only makes matters worse.
Cole has not looked sharp, and that’s been problematic at home. He has allowed 1.91 homers per nine innings in New York.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have real power and will capitalize on any mistakes.
Bet to -115.
- ML/RL bets: 62-50, +1.15 units
- Over/Under bets: 62-45-5, +9.34 units
Pirates vs Yankees weather
Temperatures should approach the mid-80s with strong winds blowing out. Clear and noticeable boost to the bats.
Pirates vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Pirates +145 | Yankees -170
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 (-130) | Yankees -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Pirates vs Yankees trend
Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Over in 30 of last 45 games (+14.95 units, 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Yankees.
How to watch Pirates vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, July 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNP, YES |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Mitch Keller (6-7, 5.14 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (3-5, 3.93 ERA) |
Pirates vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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