The Philadelphia Phillies are back at home in the midst of a three-game set against the San Diego Padres.
My Padres vs. Phillies predictions are expecting another low-scoring game at Citizens Bank Park.
Read on for my MLB picks on Tuesday, July 1.
Padres vs Phillies prediction
My Padres vs Phillies best bet: Under 8.5 (-119 at DraftKings)
⚾ Pick Analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies shut out the San Diego Padres 4-0 on Monday night behind yet another sparkling start by Zack Wheeler. While it’s hard to replicate what Wheeler is doing this season, the Phillies have found a diamond in the rough with Cristopher Sanchez, and Nick Pivetta is having a decent season as well.
Sanchez is 6-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 93.2 innings across 16 starts this season. He’s allowed more than three earned runs just once this year, and that came back on April 6 against the Padres. Since then, he’s allowed 24 ER in 82.2 innings for a 2.61 ERA, including seven ER in 34 IP (1.85 ERA) over his last five starts.
Pivetta is bouncing back in his first season with the Padres as well. He’s 8-2 with a 3.36 ERA, which would be a career best, as he has yet to have a full-season ERA under 4.04. The right-hander had a rough start to the month but settled down nicely last time out with 10 strikeouts across seven shutout innings against the Nationals.
Both the Padres and Phillies trend heavily to the Under this season. The Under is 47-34 for San Diego and 46-36 for Philadelphia, and both squads have gone Under in seven of their last 10 games.
Neither team is swinging the bat well right now, either. The Padres have been held to two runs or fewer in four of their last five games, with the Phillies at four runs or fewer in three straight and six of their previous seven games.
Padres vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Sanchez 5+ strikeouts
Harper 2+ total bases
🚀 SGP Analysis
Cristopher Sanchez hasn’t necessarily been known as a strikeout pitcher as he only had 153 punchouts in 181.2 innings last season, but he’s pacing well above that this year with 103 Ks in 93.2 IP. He’s coming off an 11-strikeout performance against the Astros and has 5+ Ks in 12 of 16 starts this season.
Bryce Harper went hitless in his return from the IL last night but did draw a walk. He is 4 for 13 against Pivetta in his career with two home runs and a double. It may take a bit for Harper to get back into a rhythm, but this is a nice leg to close out the parlay.
Padres vs Phillies odds
Padres vs Phillies live odds
Padres vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego+145 | Philadelphia -170
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-150) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Padres vs Phillies trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+10.80 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies.
How to watch Padres vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Tuesday, 7-1-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, NBCSP |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (8-2, 3.36 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Cristopher Sanchez (6-2, 2.79 ERA) |
Padres vs Phillies latest injuries
Padres vs Phillies weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
