Padres vs Mets Picks and Predictions: New York Goes for Sweep

The first-place Mets, who have won five of the last six, go for a three-game sweep over the Padres on Sunday. New York enters as a +114 underdog for the series finale with Joey Lucchesi on the mound. Find out who we like with our Padres vs. Mets picks.

Zachary Cohen
Posted: Jun 13, 2021 9:54 AM ET Updated: Jun 13, 2021 12:00 PM ET Est Time: 3 min
Pete Alonso Francisco Lindor New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA Today Sports

The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres at Citi Field on Sunday, looking to complete the three-game sweep.

San Diego starter Chris Paddack will make his second consecutive start against New York, looking to help the Padres steal the series finale.

Find out who we like with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Padres vs. Mets at Citi Field on June 13.

Padres vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, New York, NY
Date: Sunday, June 13, 2021
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Network, SNY

Padres vs Mets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

San Diego opened -136 Saturday night at FanDuel, dropped a dime to -126, then rebounded to -134, where the moneyline sits at noon ET. The Padres are taking 61 percent of moneyline tickets and 72 percent of moneyline cash. The total bounced between 7.5 and 8 several times and is now 8 (Over -118), with 57 percent of tickets/66 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Padres vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Chris Paddack (2-5, 3.59 ERA)Paddack’s last outing was against this same Mets team, and the righty threw six innings of three-run ball in that one. The 25-year-old has had an inconsistent season for San Diego this year, which is disappointing when factoring in how much promise he showed earlier in his career. However, that quality start against the Mets last outing was a step in the right direction, and the Padres would surely take another performance like that in this game. 

Joey Lucchesi (1-4, 5.79 ERA): Lucchesi has been starting games for the Mets this year, but the furthest he’s worked in a single outing was 4 2-3 innings in his last start — which happened to be against San Diego, his former employer. Lucchesi will likely continue to pitch somewhere between four and six innings, but New York won’t have any qualms with that if he’s allowing one earned run, like he did in his last start. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Padres: Drew Pomeranz RP (Out)
Mets: Billy McKinney OF (Questionable), Michael Conforto OF (Out), Jeff McNeil 2B (Out), Brandon Nimmo OF (Out), J.D. Davis 3B (Out), Dellin Betances RP (Out) 
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 7-1 in their last eight games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets.

Moneyline pick

The Mets have had it going against right-handed pitching of late, which is a bit surprising when considering that their left-handed hitters have not been particularly effective against righties this year. With that said, Pete Alonso is batting .282 with six homers and 24 RBI against right-handers on the season, and he' the most important hitter in this lineup, by far. Alonso is just 1-for-7 against Paddack in his career, but the Mets will be hoping for that to change. 

New York could also use the return of Billy McKinney, who is out with a bad knee. McKinney is 3-for-5 with a homer and two RBI against Paddack in his career. Dom Smith could also do some damage in this game, as he has taken Paddack yard before. Overall, New York should be able to score enough runs to win this game if can get another solid outing out of Lucchesi. 

Lucchesi allowed only four hits in 4 2-3 innings of one-run ball against San Diego on June 4. The lefty used to pitch for the Padres, so it’s likely that he knows some of the weaknesses that are scattered throughout San Diego’s lineup. If he can keep the ball inside the yard, that would be a major start. The Padres can rip momentum away in a hurry with their ability to hit for power, and that is especially the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. Luckily for New York, Tatis is batting only .188 against lefties this year. 

PREDICTION: Mets (+114)

Over/Under pick

Four of Paddack’s last six starts have gone Over this 8-run total, and one of the other two would have pushed this number. And with these teams having met one another just last weekend, both offenses should be able to study the other’s starter coming into this one.

That means that all of these hitters will be a bit more prepared this time around. That normally wouldn’t matter if there was a pair of studs dueling in this one, but that isn’t exactly the case here.

Both Paddack and Lucchesi are extremely hittable, and both teams should feel confident coming into this game. As such, we like the Over.

PREDICTION: Over 8 (-106)

Padres vs Mets betting card

  • Mets (+114)
  • Over 8 (-106)

Picks made on 6/13/2021 at 9:27 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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